{"id":236589,"date":"2024-07-05T10:35:49","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T08:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=236589"},"modified":"2024-07-05T10:35:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T08:35:50","slug":"legislatives-a-quoi-ressemblera-la-prochaine-assemblee-decouvrez-notre-simulateur-clef","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/05\/legislatives-a-quoi-ressemblera-la-prochaine-assemblee-decouvrez-notre-simulateur-clef\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e9gislatives&#160;: \u00e0 quoi ressemblera la prochaine Assembl\u00e9e&#160;? D\u00e9couvrez notre simulateur clef"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Pour toute remarque ou question sur ce travail de projection \u00e0 prendre avec pr\u00e9caution, vous pouvez nous \u00e9crire \u00e0 contact[at]legrandcontinent.eu.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pour soutenir l\u2019effort de la revue, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/offre-legc\/\"><em>abonnez-vous au Grand Continent<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les d\u00e9sistements, qui ont fait baisser le nombre de triangulaires \u00e0 94 \u2014 contre 306 au soir du premier tour \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/03\/sabstenir-cest-en-realite-choisir-lextreme-droite-une-conversation-avec-vincent-pons-x\/\">ont constitu\u00e9 la premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape d\u2019un front r\u00e9publicain, qui pourrait (ou non) \u00eatre suivi dans les urnes<\/a>. La question des reports de voix et de la participation demeure en effet \u00e0 ce stade <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/04\/legislatives-si-moins-de-50-des-electeurs-ne-font-pas-barrage-le-scenario-bardella-redevient-central\/\">la principale inconnue<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En projetant une hypoth\u00e8se o\u00f9 50&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs de la gauche et du centre d\u00e9cide de faire barrage en votant pour un candidat oppos\u00e9 au RN, on obtiendrait l\u2019assembl\u00e9e suivante&#160;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-large  frame-coalition-fr-div\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/coalitions_fr2.htm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans un tel sc\u00e9nario, aucun groupe n\u2019aurait la majorit\u00e9 absolue et aucune force ne semblerait suffisamment proche d\u2019une majorit\u00e9 relative \u00e0 m\u00eame de peser. L\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une \u00ab&#160;grande coalition&#160;\u00bb sans le RN et sans LFI pourrait retrouver une cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reste \u00e0 voir si, dans ce cas de figure, une n\u00e9gociation sur programme de gouvernement <em>a minima<\/em> de reconstruction nationale pourrait permettre de parvenir \u00e0 un compromis et \u00e9viter la censure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les pr\u00e9cautions d\u2019usage et l\u2019incertitude sur la mobilisation nous obligent cependant \u00e0 tester un cas de figure&#160;: celui du front r\u00e9publicain d\u00e9grad\u00e9 dans les urnes. Si l\u2019on divise par deux les reports de voix, on obtient la configuration suivante&#160;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-large  frame-coalition-fr-div\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/coalitions_fr3.htm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Comme on le voit, avec 267 si\u00e8ges, le bloc d\u2019extr\u00eame droite (RN, RN+LR, EXD) fr\u00f4lerait la majorit\u00e9 absolue et serait donc en capacit\u00e9 de peser politiquement sur la suite. Une telle coalition alignerait ainsi 17 d\u00e9put\u00e9s de plus que la majorit\u00e9 pr\u00e9sidentielle \u00e0 l\u2019assembl\u00e9e avant la dissolution du 9 juin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Une constante&#160;: le profil de cette XVIIe l\u00e9gislature serait en tout \u00e9tat de cause in\u00e9dit par sa tr\u00e8s forte tripartition, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/legislatives-le-rn-nobtiendrait-pas-une-majorite-absolue-mais-la-participation-reste-la-principale-incertitude-premiere-projection-apres-les-desistements\/\">conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 nos premi\u00e8res projections<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que la participation peut tout faire basculer, notre derni\u00e8re projection montre qu\u2019aucune majorit\u00e9 claire ne se d\u00e9gagerait.<\/p>\n<p>Dans ces conditions, qui gouvernera la France&#160;&#160;?<\/p>\n<p>Nous publions la version mise \u00e0 jour de notre simulateur de coalitions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":236590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3811],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-236589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislatives-2024","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e9gislatives : \u00e0 quoi ressemblera la prochaine Assembl\u00e9e ? D\u00e9couvrez notre simulateur clef | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/05\/legislatives-a-quoi-ressemblera-la-prochaine-assemblee-decouvrez-notre-simulateur-clef\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u00e9gislatives : \u00e0 quoi ressemblera la prochaine Assembl\u00e9e ? D\u00e9couvrez notre simulateur clef | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alors que la participation peut tout faire basculer, notre derni\u00e8re projection montre qu\u2019aucune majorit\u00e9 claire ne se d\u00e9gagerait.  Dans ces conditions, qui gouvernera la France&#160;?  Nous publions la version mise \u00e0 jour de notre simulateur de coalitions.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/05\/legislatives-a-quoi-ressemblera-la-prochaine-assemblee-decouvrez-notre-simulateur-clef\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-05T08:35:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-05T08:35:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Capture-decran-2024-07-05-a-9.59.03\u202fAM.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"4096\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2304\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matheo Malik\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Matheo Malik\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/05\/legislatives-a-quoi-ressemblera-la-prochaine-assemblee-decouvrez-notre-simulateur-clef\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/05\/legislatives-a-quoi-ressemblera-la-prochaine-assemblee-decouvrez-notre-simulateur-clef\/\",\"name\":\"L\u00e9gislatives : \u00e0 quoi ressemblera la prochaine Assembl\u00e9e ? 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