{"id":236379,"date":"2024-07-04T12:12:40","date_gmt":"2024-07-04T10:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=236379"},"modified":"2024-07-04T18:38:43","modified_gmt":"2024-07-04T16:38:43","slug":"legislatives-si-moins-de-50-des-electeurs-ne-font-pas-barrage-le-scenario-bardella-redevient-central","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/04\/legislatives-si-moins-de-50-des-electeurs-ne-font-pas-barrage-le-scenario-bardella-redevient-central\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e9gislatives&#160;: si 50&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs ne font pas barrage, le sc\u00e9nario Bardella redevient central"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Depuis le 9 juin vous avez \u00e9t\u00e9 plusieurs millions \u00e0 lire nos analyses. Ce travail a un co\u00fbt. Si vous en avez les moyens, vous pouvez nous aider \u00e0 continuer dans cet \u00e9lan en vous<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/offre-legc\/\"><em> abonnant au Grand Continent<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous mettons \u00e0 jour nos projections et notre simulateur de coalitions exclusif en testant deux hypoth\u00e8ses&#160;: avec et sans effet barrage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le premier cas de figure, on fait l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un front r\u00e9publicain tr\u00e8s d\u00e9grad\u00e9 du point de vue de la participation, en divisant par deux <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/legislatives-le-rn-nobtiendrait-pas-une-majorite-absolue-mais-la-participation-reste-la-principale-incertitude-premiere-projection-apres-les-desistements\/\">les matrices de report vers les adversaires du RN \u00e9labor\u00e9es par Cluster 17 vendredi dernier<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le deuxi\u00e8me cas de figure, on multiplie par deux cette participation en supposant que 50&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs de la gauche et du centre se mobilisent contre un candidat RN au second tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1 \u2014 Le front r\u00e9publicain se d\u00e9grade&#160;: le RN fr\u00f4le la majorit\u00e9 absolue<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-large  frame-coalition-fr-div\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/coalitions_fr3.htm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans cette hypoth\u00e8se, la variation serait de 39 si\u00e8ges en plus pour le bloc d\u2019extr\u00eame droite (RN, LR-RN, EXD). Avec 267, m\u00eame sans majorit\u00e9 absolue, ce bloc domin\u00e9 par le RN serait en mesure de peser \u2014\u00a0240 d\u00e9put\u00e9s (soit la fourchette haute de notre projection d\u2019hier) pourrait \u00eatre une limite au-dessus de laquelle Jordan Bardella pourrait proposer un gouvernement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La \u00ab&#160;Grande Coalition&#160;\u00bb \u2014 tout l\u2019arc des partis sauf l\u2019extr\u00eame droite et LFI \u2014 ne plafonne dans ce cas de figure \u00e0 gu\u00e8re plus de 240 si\u00e8ges, se tenant \u00e9loign\u00e9e de 46 si\u00e8ges de la majorit\u00e9 absolue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2 \u2014&nbsp;Le front r\u00e9publicain tient&#160;: le sc\u00e9nario Grande Coalition devient probable<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-large  frame-coalition-fr-div\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/coalitions_fr2.htm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La d\u00e9finition d\u2019un front r\u00e9publicain plus dynamique a provoqu\u00e9 212 d\u00e9sistements et a conduit les 306 triangulaires du soir du premier tour \u00e0 94.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans cette hypoth\u00e8se, on observe une dynamique positive pour les forces centristes et de la gauche qui semble \u00e0 ce stade rendre plus probable le sc\u00e9nario <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/03\/qui-gouvernera-la-france-entre-grandes-et-tres-grandes-coalitions-union-des-droites-majorite-de-blocage-5-scenarios-clefs-apres-le-second-tour\/\">d\u2019une grande coalition<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Avec environ 270 d\u00e9put\u00e9s, une \u00ab&#160;Grande Coalition&#160;\u00bb r\u00e9unissant les R\u00e9publicains, les centristes et le Nouveau Front populaire \u2014 tout en excluant LFI \u2014 fr\u00f4lerait la majorit\u00e9 absolue.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reste \u00e0 voir si, dans ce cas de figure, une n\u00e9gociation sur programme de gouvernement <em>a minima<\/em> de reconstruction nationale pourrait permettre de parvenir \u00e0 un compromis et \u00e9viter la censure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En cas de d\u00e9mobilisation, m\u00eame partielle, des \u00e9lecteurs de la gauche et du centre, le RN a toujours de r\u00e9elles chances de viser la majorit\u00e9 absolue.<\/p>\n<p>Nous mettons \u00e0 jour notre comparateur de coalitions selon deux hypoth\u00e8ses de barrage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":236383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3811],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-236379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislatives-2024","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":236383,"excerpt":"En cas de d\u00e9mobilisation, m\u00eame partielle, des \u00e9lecteurs de la gauche et du centre, le RN a toujours de r\u00e9elles chances de viser la majorit\u00e9 absolue.\r\n\r\nNous mettons \u00e0 jour notre comparateur de coalitions selon deux hypoth\u00e8ses de barrage.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e9gislatives : si 50 % des \u00e9lecteurs ne font pas barrage, le sc\u00e9nario Bardella redevient central | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/04\/legislatives-si-moins-de-50-des-electeurs-ne-font-pas-barrage-le-scenario-bardella-redevient-central\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u00e9gislatives : si 50 % des \u00e9lecteurs ne font pas barrage, le sc\u00e9nario Bardella redevient central | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En cas de d\u00e9mobilisation, m\u00eame partielle, des \u00e9lecteurs de la gauche et du centre, le RN a toujours de r\u00e9elles chances de viser la majorit\u00e9 absolue.  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