{"id":236083,"date":"2024-07-02T15:29:15","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T13:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=236083"},"modified":"2024-07-02T15:51:28","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T13:51:28","slug":"legislatives-le-rn-nobtiendrait-pas-une-majorite-absolue-mais-la-participation-reste-la-principale-incertitude-premiere-projection-apres-les-desistements","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/legislatives-le-rn-nobtiendrait-pas-une-majorite-absolue-mais-la-participation-reste-la-principale-incertitude-premiere-projection-apres-les-desistements\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e9gislatives&#160;: le RN n\u2019obtiendrait pas une majorit\u00e9 absolue (Premi\u00e8re projection apr\u00e8s d\u00e9sistements)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>La projection ci-dessous est amen\u00e9e \u00e0 \u00e9voluer au fur et \u00e0 mesure des annonces de d\u00e9sistements puis de la composition d\u00e9finitive des seconds tours. N\u2019h\u00e9sitez pas \u00e0 nous signaler (contact[at]legrandcontinent.eu) toute projection locale qui vous semblerait poser question.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pour soutenir le travail de la revue, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/offre-legc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>abonnez-vous au Grand Continent<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La projection ci-dessous a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e \u00e0 partir des r\u00e9sultats du premier tour (publi\u00e9s par le minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur), du d\u00e9compte des d\u00e9sistements r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par <em>Le Monde<\/em> et des matrices de transition entre premier et second tour <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/01\/legislatives-le-rn-a-t-il-deja-gagne-7-clefs-pour-decoder-lentre-deux-tours\/\">publi\u00e9es par Cluster 17 le 28 juin<\/a>. Il ne s\u2019agit donc pas d\u2019une pr\u00e9vision et les pr\u00e9cautions d\u2019usage s\u2019impose en l\u2019absence de donn\u00e9es concernant <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/la-baisse-de-la-participation-au-second-tour-pourrait-donner-la-majorite-absolue-au-rn\/\">la principale inconnue et le facteur le plus d\u00e9cisif&#160;: la participation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/18589719\/embed\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les circonscriptions ont ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9es une \u00e0 une et une issue d\u00e9termin\u00e9e manuellement pour chacune d\u2019entre elles en prenant en compte&#160;: le vainqueur statistiquement probable au regard des reports de voix&#160;; l\u2019avance du candidat arriv\u00e9 en t\u00eate au premier tour&#160;; l\u2019affiliation partisane des candidats NFP&#160;; et certaines configurations locales particuli\u00e8res. En cas de grande incertitude, plusieurs vainqueurs potentiels ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9termin\u00e9s, donnant lieu \u00e0 une fourchette de si\u00e8ges pour chaque parti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/CLNwI\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans un sc\u00e9nario maximaliste, le nombre de si\u00e8ges remport\u00e9s par des candidats RN et LR-RN (262) serait insuffisant pour atteindre une majorit\u00e9 absolue (289) \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le sc\u00e9nario moyen confirme l\u2019\u00e9mergence de trois principaux blocs (NFP, ENS,RN) qui seraient toutefois tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gaux&#160;: les coalitions des partis de gauche et du centre disposeraient d\u2019une vingtaine de d\u00e9put\u00e9s en plus seulement que l\u2019alliance entre le RN et <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/06\/21\/qui-sont-les-amis-de-ciotti-7-points-sur-le-bloc-de-deputes-lr-rn\/\">les Amis de Ciotti<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/G5O24\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La principale incertitude porte sur les reports de voix des \u00e9lecteurs du centre et de gauche vers le RN en cas de duels RN-NFP et RN-Ensemble au second tour.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En particulier, les reports vers le RN des \u00e9lecteurs de gauche sont donn\u00e9s \u00e0 des niveaux beaucoup plus faibles (&lt; 10&#160;%) dans les enqu\u00eates r\u00e9centes que dans certaines enqu\u00eates \u00ab&#160;jour de vote&#160;\u00bb de 2022, o\u00f9 ils pouvaient atteindre 30&#160;%.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si ces reports atteignaient un tel niveau en 2024, une majorit\u00e9 absolue RN redeviendrait possible, voire probable.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019abstention (ou la participation) au deuxi\u00e8me tour sera particuli\u00e8rement d\u00e9terminante et difficilement anticipable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/01\/legislatives-le-rn-a-t-il-deja-gagne-7-clefs-pour-decoder-lentre-deux-tours\/\">un sondage Cluster 17 du 28 juin<\/a>, 58&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs d\u2019Ensemble disent qu\u2019ils pr\u00e9f\u00e9reraient s\u2019abstenir dans un second tour opposant un candidat du Rassemblement National \u00e0 un candidat du Nouveau Front populaire.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La logique d\u2019abstention des \u00e9lecteurs de gauche est similaire&#160;: lorsqu\u2019on leur propose de choisir entre Ensemble et le RN, 54&#160;% disent qu\u2019ils s\u2019abstiendraient, 42&#160;% choisiraient Ensemble et 4&#160;% le Rassemblement National.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon une projection exclusive, apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce des d\u00e9sistements \u00e0 ce stade et en utilisant les matrices de transition Cluster 17, le sc\u00e9nario moyen ferait \u00e9merger trois blocs tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gaux.<\/p>\n<p>Si ce cas de figure se confirmait, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une \u00ab&#160;grande coalition&#160;\u00bb ne serait pas \u00e0 exclure. <\/p>\n<p>La participation reste toutefois la principale inconnue et pourrait faire basculer la composition de l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":236088,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3811],"tags":[],"staff":[1637],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-236083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislatives-2024","staff-francois-hublet","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":236088,"excerpt":"Selon une projection exclusive, apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce des d\u00e9sistements \u00e0 ce stade et en utilisant les matrices de transition Cluster 17, le sc\u00e9nario moyen ferait \u00e9merger trois blocs tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gaux.\r\n\r\nSi ce cas de figure se confirmait, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une \u00abgrande coalition\u00bb ne serait pas \u00e0 exclure. \r\n\r\nLa participation reste toutefois la principale inconnue et pourrait faire basculer la composition de l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e9gislatives : le RN n\u2019obtiendrait pas une majorit\u00e9 absolue (Premi\u00e8re projection apr\u00e8s d\u00e9sistements) | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/legislatives-le-rn-nobtiendrait-pas-une-majorite-absolue-mais-la-participation-reste-la-principale-incertitude-premiere-projection-apres-les-desistements\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u00e9gislatives : le RN n\u2019obtiendrait pas une majorit\u00e9 absolue (Premi\u00e8re projection apr\u00e8s d\u00e9sistements) | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon une projection exclusive, apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce des d\u00e9sistements \u00e0 ce stade et en utilisant les matrices de transition Cluster 17, le sc\u00e9nario moyen ferait \u00e9merger trois blocs tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gaux.  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La participation reste toutefois la principale inconnue et pourrait faire basculer la composition de l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/legislatives-le-rn-nobtiendrait-pas-une-majorite-absolue-mais-la-participation-reste-la-principale-incertitude-premiere-projection-apres-les-desistements\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-02T13:29:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-02T13:51:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Capture-decran-2024-07-02-a-3.28.10\u202fPM.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"4096\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2304\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" 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