{"id":235989,"date":"2024-07-02T06:14:17","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T04:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=235989"},"modified":"2024-07-02T06:19:13","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T04:19:13","slug":"la-baisse-de-la-participation-au-second-tour-pourrait-donner-la-majorite-absolue-au-rn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/la-baisse-de-la-participation-au-second-tour-pourrait-donner-la-majorite-absolue-au-rn\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e9gislatives&#160;: m\u00eame avec des d\u00e9sistements massifs, la baisse de la participation au second tour pourrait donner la majorit\u00e9 absolue au RN\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La strat\u00e9gie de d\u00e9sistement des candidats issus de la coalition pr\u00e9sidentielle ou du Nouveau Front populaire devrait sensiblement modifier les sc\u00e9narios de second tour dans une grande partie des circonscriptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>On d\u00e9nombrait 306 triangulaires avant les nombreux d\u00e9sistements qui intervendront au plus tard aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 2 juillet, \u00e0 18h.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hier, \u00e0 16h, nous en comptions plus de 170. Ces derniers vont conduire \u00e0 une r\u00e9duction de l\u2019offre qui pourrait conduire certains \u00e9lecteurs centristes \u00e0 s\u2019abstenir lors du second tour.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YmTPr\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/01\/legislatives-le-rn-a-t-il-deja-gagne-7-clefs-pour-decoder-lentre-deux-tours\/\">un sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 le 28 juin par Cluster17<\/a>, 58&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs d\u2019Ensemble disent qu\u2019ils pr\u00e9f\u00e9reraient s\u2019abstenir dans un second tour opposant un candidat du Rassemblement National \u00e0 un candidat du Nouveau Front populaire. La logique d\u2019abstention des \u00e9lecteurs de gauche est similaire&#160;: lorsqu\u2019on leur propose de choisir entre Ensemble et le RN, 54&#160;% disent qu\u2019ils s\u2019abstiendraient, 42&#160;% choisiraient Ensemble et 4&#160;% le Rassemblement National.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/r6r0K\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lors du premier tour, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/06\/30\/la-participation-augmente-davantage-la-ou-le-rn-etait-fort-le-9-juin-x\/\">le taux de participation<\/a> a atteint son niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 depuis 1997&#160;: 66,71&#160;%, contre 47,51&#160;% lors du premier tour de 2022.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette hausse de de plus de 19 points de pourcentage a conduit \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9lection au premier tour de 76 candidats&#160;: 39 du Rassemblement National, 31 du Nouveau Front populaire, 2 Ensemble, 2 divers-droite, 1 LR, 1 LR-RN.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/QCOFl\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Une participation aussi \u00e9lev\u00e9e au second tour pourrait indiquer que les \u00e9lecteurs de gauche soutiennent les candidats de la coalition pr\u00e9sidentielle \u2014 en supposant qu\u2019il n\u2019y ait pas de triangulaires. Les chiffres de participation \u00e0 midi et \u00e0 17h pourraient ainsi fournir un indicateur pr\u00e9coce des r\u00e9sultats du second tour.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00eame avec une r\u00e9duction de triangulaires, une baisse substantielle de la participation ce dimanche pourrait d\u00e9terminer la victoire du RN. Selon les derniers chiffres Cluster 17, la majorit\u00e9 des \u00e9lecteurs des partis du centre et de gauche s\u2019abstiendrait lors d\u2019un duel opposant au second tour un candidat issu d\u2019Ensemble ou du NFP contre un candidat du RN.<\/p>\n<p>Encore plus qu\u2019au premier tour, la participation impactera directement la composition de la future Assembl\u00e9e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":235874,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":2,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3811],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-235989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislatives-2024","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":235874,"excerpt":"M\u00eame avec une r\u00e9duction de triangulaires, une baisse substantielle de la participation ce dimanche pourrait d\u00e9terminer la victoire du RN. Selon les derniers chiffres Cluster 17, la majorit\u00e9 des \u00e9lecteurs des partis du centre et de gauche s\u2019abstiendrait lors d\u2019un duel opposant au second tour un candidat issu d\u2019Ensemble ou du NFP contre un candidat du RN.\r\n\r\nEncore plus qu\u2019au premier tour, la participation impactera directement la composition de la future Assembl\u00e9e.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e9gislatives : m\u00eame avec des d\u00e9sistements massifs, la baisse de la participation au second tour pourrait donner la majorit\u00e9 absolue au RN\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/02\/la-baisse-de-la-participation-au-second-tour-pourrait-donner-la-majorite-absolue-au-rn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u00e9gislatives : m\u00eame avec des d\u00e9sistements massifs, la baisse de la participation au second tour pourrait donner la majorit\u00e9 absolue au RN\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"M\u00eame avec une r\u00e9duction de triangulaires, une baisse substantielle de la participation ce dimanche pourrait d\u00e9terminer la victoire du RN. Selon les derniers chiffres Cluster 17, la majorit\u00e9 des \u00e9lecteurs des partis du centre et de gauche s\u2019abstiendrait lors d\u2019un duel opposant au second tour un candidat issu d\u2019Ensemble ou du NFP contre un candidat du RN.  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