{"id":235759,"date":"2024-06-30T20:26:18","date_gmt":"2024-06-30T18:26:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=235759"},"modified":"2024-06-30T23:40:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-30T21:40:00","slug":"legislatives-lanalyse-du-vote-montre-que-le-rassemblement-national-ne-pourra-pas-gagner-contre-un-front-republicain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/06\/30\/legislatives-lanalyse-du-vote-montre-que-le-rassemblement-national-ne-pourra-pas-gagner-contre-un-front-republicain\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e9gislatives&#160;: l\u2019analyse du vote montre que le Rassemblement national ne pourra pas gagner contre un front r\u00e9publicain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les r\u00e9sultats des enqu\u00eates \u00ab&#160;sortie des urnes&#160;\u00bb donnent le Rassemblement national (RN) largement en t\u00eate avec 34&#160;% des voix, suivi du Nouveau Front populaire (NFP) avec 28&#160;% des voix et de la coalition macroniste \u00ab&#160;Ensemble pour la R\u00e9publique&#160;\u00bb avec 20&#160;% des voix. Les R\u00e9publicains (LR) et divers droite obtiendraient 10&#160;% des voix, et Reconqu\u00eate&#160;! moins de 1&#160;%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les r\u00e9sultats confirment le renforcement de la tripartition de la vie politique fran\u00e7aise entre un bloc de gauche, un bloc centriste et un bloc d\u2019extr\u00eame droite repr\u00e9sentant chacun un tiers de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat. Le bloc macroniste, fortement affaibli, obtient cependant de meilleurs scores que lors des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes, tandis que le total des gauches recule.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/IYngN\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Malgr\u00e9 sa victoire nette, le Rassemblement national ne convainc qu\u2019un tiers de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat. Le RN peut encore esp\u00e9rer obtenir une majorit\u00e9 absolue au second tour, mais celle-ci d\u00e9pendra de mani\u00e8re cruciale de l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 des autres partis \u00e0 s\u2019accorder sur un \u00ab&#160;front r\u00e9publicain&#160;\u00bb au second tour. Si la multiplication des triangulaires \u2014 environ 300 selon les premi\u00e8res estimations \u2014 devrait jouer en sa faveur, le d\u00e9sistement des candidats arriv\u00e9s troisi\u00e8mes limiterait fortement ce risque.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Une fois la liste des candidats au second tour arr\u00eat\u00e9e, le principal enjeu concernera\u00a0 les reports de voix entre le centre et la gauche. Les sondages r\u00e9alis\u00e9s dans les jours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant l\u2019\u00e9lection sugg\u00e8rent que les duels NFP-RN \u2014 particuli\u00e8rement quand ils impliquent des candidats issus de la France Insoumise \u2014 devraient \u00eatre plus souvent favorables au RN. En revanche, les duels opposant des candidats centristes au RN seront plus ouverts.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans un message transmis \u00e0 la presse, le Pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9publique a d\u00e9clar\u00e9&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Face au Rassemblement national, l\u2019heure est \u00e0 un large rassemblement clairement d\u00e9mocrate et r\u00e9publicain pour le second tour&#160;\u00bb. Selon plusieurs sources proches du dossier, Ensemble pourrait appliquer la logique du cas par cas, en excluant du barrage plusieurs figures issues notamment de la France insoumise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nous publierons dans la soir\u00e9e un calcul exclusif avec plusieurs sc\u00e9narios.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le parti de Jordan Bardella et de Marine Le Pen est arriv\u00e9 en t\u00eate des l\u00e9gislatives avec 34&#160;&#160;% des suffrages au premier tour. <\/p>\n<p>La premi\u00e8re analyse des r\u00e9sultats montre clairement que trois blocs se d\u00e9gagent en France \u2014 avec un corollaire&#160;&#160;: le Rassemblement national n\u2019obtiendra la majorit\u00e9 absolue que si les deux autres le lui permettent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":235762,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3811],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-235759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislatives-2024","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e9gislatives : l\u2019analyse du vote montre que le Rassemblement national ne pourra pas gagner contre un front r\u00e9publicain | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/06\/30\/legislatives-lanalyse-du-vote-montre-que-le-rassemblement-national-ne-pourra-pas-gagner-contre-un-front-republicain\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u00e9gislatives : l\u2019analyse du vote montre que le Rassemblement national ne pourra pas gagner contre un front r\u00e9publicain | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le parti de Jordan Bardella et de Marine Le Pen est arriv\u00e9 en t\u00eate des l\u00e9gislatives avec 34&#160;% des suffrages au premier tour.   La premi\u00e8re analyse des r\u00e9sultats montre clairement que trois blocs se d\u00e9gagent en France \u2014 avec un corollaire&#160;: le Rassemblement national n\u2019obtiendra la majorit\u00e9 absolue que si les deux autres le lui permettent.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/06\/30\/legislatives-lanalyse-du-vote-montre-que-le-rassemblement-national-ne-pourra-pas-gagner-contre-un-front-republicain\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-06-30T18:26:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-30T21:40:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/Capture-decran-2024-06-30-a-8.25.05\u202fPM.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"4096\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2304\" \/>\n\t<meta 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