{"id":229355,"date":"2024-05-14T18:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-14T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=229355"},"modified":"2024-05-14T16:53:11","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T14:53:11","slug":"decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9\u00e7ue de la perspective d\u2019un duel Trump-Biden, la jeunesse am\u00e9ricaine se tourne vers RFK Jr."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, le syst\u00e8me politique bipartite a vu sa popularit\u00e9 s\u2019effondrer depuis le d\u00e9but du si\u00e8cle. En 2003, plus de la moiti\u00e9 des \u00e9lecteurs (56&#160;%) s\u2019estimaient \u00ab&#160;satisfaits&#160;\u00bb d\u2019avoir le choix entre deux candidats issus des principaux grands partis lors des \u00e9lections, selon l&rsquo;institut Gallup. Lors du dernier sondage conduit en septembre 2023, cette part est tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 34&#160;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/pNPA3\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette ann\u00e9e, alors qu\u2019une majorit\u00e9 d&rsquo;Am\u00e9ricains estime que les deux candidats en lice ne devraient pas se repr\u00e9senter, le choix sur les bulletins de vote sera le m\u00eame que quatre ans plus t\u00f4t&#160;: <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/themes\/elections\/trump-contre-biden-pour-la-maison-blanche-suivre-les-elections-americaines-2024\/\">Biden ou Trump<\/a>&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-229355' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-229355' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-us\/most-americans-are-dissatisfied-their-choices-president&quot;&gt;Most Americans are dissatisfied with their choices for president&lt;\/a&gt;, Ipsos, 25 janvier 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tandis que ce sc\u00e9nario largement impopulaire se concr\u00e9tise de plus en plus, \u00e0 moins de six mois des \u00e9lections, le candidat ind\u00e9pendant Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie d\u2019une surprenante popularit\u00e9 parmi les jeunes \u00e9lecteurs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RFK, neveu du pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9mocrate John Fitzgerald Kennedy, a annonc\u00e9 sa candidature \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence en avril 2023. Le nom de sa colisti\u00e8re, Nicole Shanahan, a quant \u00e0 lui \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9voil\u00e9 en mars dernier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Depuis l\u2019an dernier, sa part dans les sondages est relativement stable, autour de 10&#160;% d\u2019intentions de vote.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3hGnV\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Toutefois, parmi les jeunes \u00e9lecteurs, les intentions de vote d\u00e9clar\u00e9es en faveur de RFK s\u2019approchent d\u00e9sormais des niveaux de Biden ou Trump. Dans une enqu\u00eate de Generation Lab conduite \u00e0 la fin du mois d\u2019avril, 29&#160;% des 18-34 ans d\u00e9claraient vouloir voter pour le candidat ind\u00e9pendant en novembre&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-229355' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-229355' title='Madeleine Gates, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.generationlab.org\/_files\/ugd\/b2ee84_9fefb7fc260a4be4a6360244a3df64ee.pdf&quot;&gt;CNBC + Generation Lab Youth Poll Youth &amp;amp; Current Affairs in the USA&lt;\/a&gt;, 7 mai 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Le sondage New York Times\/Siena publi\u00e9 lundi 13 mai place quant \u00e0 lui RFK \u00e0 seulement 8 points derri\u00e8re Joe Biden parmi les 18-29 ans&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-229355' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-229355' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/05\/13\/us\/elections\/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html&quot;&gt;Cross-Tabs&amp;#160;: May 2024 Times\/Siena Poll of the Presidential Battlegrounds&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 mai 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/JiLMB\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Historiquement, les candidats-tiers r\u00e9alisent des scores inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la moyenne des derniers sondages lors des \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles am\u00e9ricaines. L\u2019une des raisons expliquant cette sous-performance chronique r\u00e9side dans l\u2019acc\u00e8s aux bulletins de vote&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-229355' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-229355' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.economist.com\/briefing\/2024\/03\/07\/third-party-candidates-could-tip-americas-presidential-election&quot;&gt;Third-party candidates could be decisive in America\u2019s election&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Economist&lt;\/em&gt;, 7 mai 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Contrairement aux candidats r\u00e9publicains et d\u00e9mocrates \u2014 qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient d\u2019un acc\u00e8s aux bulletins garanti par les l\u00e9gislatures d\u2019\u00c9tat \u2014, les candidats ind\u00e9pendants doivent mobiliser d\u2019importantes ressources financi\u00e8res ainsi que leurs soutiens pour obtenir le seuil de signatures requis dans chaque \u00c9tat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La campagne de RFK a n\u00e9anmoins signal\u00e9 qu\u2019elle comptait figurer sur les bulletins de vote des 50 \u00c9tats en novembre&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-229355' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-229355' title='Brittany Gibson et Peder Schaefer, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/05\/13\/rfk-jr-getting-on-ballots-around-country-00157780&quot;&gt;RFK Jr. is defying the odds \u2014 against getting on ballots around the country&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Politico&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 mai 2024.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. \u00c0 ce jour, le ticket RFK\/Shanahan revendique avoir acc\u00e8s aux bulletins dans 13 \u00c9tats.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/UqjS6\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le vote des 18-29 ans sera crucial pour l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre. Les marges de quelques points de pourcentage qui octroieront des grands \u00e9lecteurs \u00e0 Biden ou Trump dans les \u00c9tats-clefs seront principalement d\u00e9termin\u00e9es par le vote de abstentionnistes lors du scrutin de 2020, consid\u00e9rant le faible report de voix attendu en raison de l\u2019extr\u00eame polarisation, ainsi que par l\u2019\u00e9lectorat susceptible d\u2019\u00eatre siphonn\u00e9 par un candidat tiers. Dans le sc\u00e9nario actuel, RFK est particuli\u00e8rement populaire parmi les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9\u00e7us du Parti d\u00e9mocrate ayant signal\u00e9 vouloir voter pour Trump en novembre&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-229355' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-229355' title='Nate Cohn, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/05\/14\/upshot\/polling-robert-kennedy-trump-biden.html&quot;&gt;R.F.K. Jr. Isn\u2019t a Spoiler Now, Poll Suggests, but He Could Be in November&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 14 mai 2024.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon plusieurs sondages r\u00e9cents, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. n\u2019est d\u00e9sormais plus qu\u2019\u00e0 quelques points de Biden et Trump dans les intentions de vote des jeunes \u00e9lecteurs am\u00e9ricains. Si le candidat ind\u00e9pendant r\u00e9ussit \u00e0 acc\u00e9der aux bulletins de vote dans les 50 \u00c9tats, sa candidature pourrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer d\u00e9terminante lors du scrutin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":229358,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-229355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trump-contre-biden-pour-la-maison-blanche-suivre-les-elections-americaines-2024","geo-ameriques"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>D\u00e9\u00e7ue de la perspective d\u2019un duel Trump-Biden, la jeunesse am\u00e9ricaine se tourne vers RFK Jr. | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/14\/decue-de-la-perspective-dun-duel-trump-biden-la-jeunesse-americaine-se-tourne-vers-rfk-jr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"D\u00e9\u00e7ue de la perspective d\u2019un duel Trump-Biden, la jeunesse am\u00e9ricaine se tourne vers RFK Jr. | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon plusieurs sondages r\u00e9cents, Robert F. 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