{"id":229005,"date":"2024-05-10T17:02:36","date_gmt":"2024-05-10T15:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=229005"},"modified":"2024-06-06T22:31:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T20:31:09","slug":"en-catalogne-des-elections-decisives-pour-le-futur-des-equilibres-de-la-majorite-parlementaire-espagnole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/10\/en-catalogne-des-elections-decisives-pour-le-futur-des-equilibres-de-la-majorite-parlementaire-espagnole\/","title":{"rendered":"En Catalogne, des \u00e9lections d\u00e9cisives pour le futur des \u00e9quilibres de la majorit\u00e9 parlementaire espagnole"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Au fil des ann\u00e9es, la Catalogne est devenue la cl\u00e9 des majorit\u00e9s parlementaires en Espagne. Au congr\u00e8s des d\u00e9put\u00e9s, Pedro Sanchez ne peut gouverner sans l\u2019appui des parlementaires catalans du centre-gauche ind\u00e9pendantiste d\u2019<em>Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya<\/em> (ERC) et de <em>Junts per Catalunya<\/em> (JxC), la formation s\u00e9cessionniste de Carles Puigdemont.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NSXao\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces \u00e9lections sont donc d\u00e9cisives pour les \u00e9quilibres futurs de la majorit\u00e9 parlementaire en Espagne. Notre \u00e9tude, r\u00e9alis\u00e9e entre le 3 et le 4 mai, met au jour un certain nombre de dynamiques pour cette fin de campagne \u00e9lectorale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>Au fil des ann\u00e9es, la Catalogne est devenue la cl\u00e9 des majorit\u00e9s parlementaires en Espagne.<\/p><cite>Jean-Yves Dormagen<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/0bk4D\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>En premier lieu, la campagne du Parti socialiste catalan semble fonctionner. Elle est non seulement salu\u00e9e comme la meilleure campagne par 17&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs, loin devant <em>Junts<\/em>, dont la campagne est per\u00e7ue comme la meilleure par 9&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs, mais le PSC progresse en intentions de vote de 1,7 points depuis notre sondage pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/WW6Cz\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette progression s&rsquo;inscrit dans une dynamique de vote utile et se fait au d\u00e9triment des autres forces de gauche ind\u00e9pendantistes comme non ind\u00e9pendantistes&#160;: ERC, la CUP et Sumar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/U1UtE\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>En effet, ERC a encore recul\u00e9 de 0,3 points, \u00e0 16,1&#160;%, un score qui serait d\u00e9cevant pour la formation du pr\u00e9sident de la Generalitat s&rsquo;il \u00e9tait confirm\u00e9 dimanche. La CUP recule de 0,8 points, \u00e0 3,9&#160;% et s&rsquo;approche du seuil des 3&#160;%. Sumar, enfin, recule de 0,3 points et tombe \u00e0 5,7&#160;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9ZWNv\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces \u00e9lections annoncent donc un recul assez net des partis ind\u00e9pendantistes traditionnels qui pourraient, selon nos estimations, obtenir entre 57 et 66 si\u00e8ges, soit moins que les 68 si\u00e8ges n\u00e9cessaires pour obtenir une majorit\u00e9 absolue \u2014 \u00e0 moins d\u2019inclure l\u2019extr\u00eame droite ind\u00e9pendantiste d\u2019<em>Alian\u00e7a Catalana<\/em>, per\u00e7ue comme infr\u00e9quentable par ces partis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/txK7c\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Junts<\/em>, la formation de Carles Puigdemont qui domine le camp ind\u00e9pendantiste d&rsquo;un point de vue \u00e9lectoral, obtiendrait 21,2&#160;% (-0,2), soit un score insuffisant pour compenser les pertes de ses alli\u00e9s potentiels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/h5oAF\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Chez les ind\u00e9pendantistes, la surprise pourrait venir de l&rsquo;extr\u00eame droite d&rsquo;<em>Alian\u00e7a Catalana<\/em>, en net progr\u00e8s de +1,1 points, d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 3,8&#160;% et qui pourrait faire son entr\u00e9e au Parlement r\u00e9gional avec 2 \u00e0 5 \u00e9lus. L&rsquo;\u00e9mergence de cette force au Parlement catalan pourrait devenir un r\u00e9el probl\u00e8me pour le camp ind\u00e9pendantiste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/363Ih\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Il semble quasi impossible d&rsquo;imaginer une alliance qui aille de la CUP \u00e0 <em>Alian\u00e7a Catalana<\/em>. Aussi, <em>Alian\u00e7a Catalana<\/em> rend plus compliqu\u00e9 la formation future de coalitions ind\u00e9pendantistes majoritaires au Parlement catalan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>La surprise pourrait venir de l&rsquo;extr\u00eame droite d&rsquo;<em>Alian\u00e7a Catalana<\/em>, dont l\u2019\u00e9mergence au Parlement catalan pourrait devenir un r\u00e9el probl\u00e8me pour le camp ind\u00e9pendantiste.<\/p><cite>Jean-Yves Dormagen<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/OVzXz\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 droite, Vox resterait stable et le PP reculerait l\u00e9g\u00e8rement de 0,3 point par rapport \u00e0 notre enqu\u00eate pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Ainsi, il semble que la seule coalition possible r\u00e9unisse le PSC, ERC et potentiellement <em>Comuns-Sumar<\/em>, afin d&rsquo;obtenir une majorit\u00e9 stable de 68 si\u00e8ges.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les \u00e9lections de ce dimanche en Catalogne, qui s\u2019est impos\u00e9e au fil des ann\u00e9es comme la cl\u00e9 des majorit\u00e9s parlementaires en Espagne, pourraient voir un net recul des partis ind\u00e9pendantistes traditionnels. \u00c0 partir de la derni\u00e8re enqu\u00eate de Cluster17, Jean-Yves Dormagen livre les r\u00e9sultats exclusifs des dynamiques de cette fin de campagne \u00e9lectorale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18252,"featured_media":229046,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-studies.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[3236],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-229005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","staff-jean-yves-dormagen","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>En Catalogne, des \u00e9lections d\u00e9cisives pour le futur des \u00e9quilibres de la majorit\u00e9 parlementaire espagnole | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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