{"id":228315,"date":"2024-05-03T18:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=228315"},"modified":"2024-05-03T16:09:02","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T14:09:02","slug":"800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/","title":{"rendered":"800 jours de guerre en Ukraine&#160;: quelles perspectives pour la paix&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Pour l\u2019Ukraine et ses soutiens, la position vis-\u00e0-vis d\u2019un arr\u00eat des combats voire d\u2019une paix a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 la m\u00eame&#160;: prendre l\u2019initiative et dominer militairement le conflit de mani\u00e8re \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier avec Moscou dans une position de force. Cette posture n\u00e9cessite un important soutien financier, mat\u00e9riel et militaire dont Kiev d\u00e9pend enti\u00e8rement pour conserver l\u2019espoir de recouvrer un jour son int\u00e9grit\u00e9 territoriale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si les discussions sont aujourd\u2019hui au point mort, cela n\u2019a pas toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans les premiers mois du conflit, des repr\u00e9sentants des deux bellig\u00e9rants ont particip\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9laboration d\u2019un texte qui aurait pu devenir un trait\u00e9 de paix si les n\u00e9gociations n\u2019avaient pas \u00e9t\u00e9 brutalement interrompues en mai 2022&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-228315' title='Samuel Charap et Sergey Radchenko, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/ukraine\/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine&quot;&gt;The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Foreign Affairs&lt;\/em&gt;, 16 avril 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00c0 peine quatre jours apr\u00e8s le lancement de l\u2019invasion, le 28 f\u00e9vrier 2022, une d\u00e9l\u00e9gation russe \u00e9tait d\u00e9p\u00each\u00e9e en Bi\u00e9lorussie, \u00e0 quelques dizaines de kilom\u00e8tres seulement de la fronti\u00e8re avec l\u2019Ukraine, pour entamer des pourparlers avec Kiev&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-228315' title='Yaroslav Trofimov, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/did-ukraine-miss-an-early-chance-to-negotiate-peace-with-russia-d864b7c9?mod=article_inline&quot;&gt;Did Ukraine Miss an Early Chance to Negotiate Peace With Russia&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 5 janvier 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quelques semaines plus tard \u00e0 peine, en avril 2022, un projet de trait\u00e9 de paix \u00e9tait r\u00e9dig\u00e9. Celui-ci, long de 17 pages, pr\u00e9voyait de faire de l\u2019Ukraine un \u00c9tat neutre condamn\u00e9 \u00e0 demeurer en-dehors de toute alliance militaire. La Crim\u00e9e serait rest\u00e9e <em>de facto <\/em>sous contr\u00f4le russe, et l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9duite \u00e0 la portion congrue&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-228315' title='Max Colchester, Thomas Grove et James Marson, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093&quot;&gt;Document From 2022 Reveals Putin\u2019s Punishing Terms for Peace&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er mars 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\"\n    data-shadow=\"false\"\n    data-use-original-file=\"false\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine.png\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"1742\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1522\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine-330x288.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine-690x603.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine-990x865.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine-690x603.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine-990x865.png\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/gc-cartographie-paix-Ukraine-125x109.png\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<p>En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, comme le note le chercheur polonais Daniel Szeligowski, Vladimir Poutine n\u2019a probablement jamais souhait\u00e9 renoncer \u00e0 obtenir une victoire militaire&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-228315' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/twitter.com\/dszeligowski\/status\/1785771531458462188&quot;&gt;Fil sur X (Twitter) de Daniel Szeligowski&lt;\/a&gt;, 1er mai 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. D\u00e8s le mois de mars, il semblait clair que <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/16\/deux-ans-de-guerre-en-ukraine-10-cartes-et-dates-clefs\/\">l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe ne parviendrait pas \u00e0 capturer Kiev<\/a> en quelques jours comme le commandement russe l\u2019anticipait. Les n\u00e9gociations ont alors servi de leurre \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 Poutine faisait face \u00e0 un revers militaire qui n\u2019a pris fin qu\u2019un an plus tard avec la chute de Bakhmout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les deux dirigeants ont r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 de multiples reprises qu\u2019ils ne souhaitaient pas d\u2019un cessez-le-feu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Zelensky consid\u00e8re qu\u2019un arr\u00eat temporaire des combats ne ferait que permettre \u00e0 la Russie de reconstituer ses forces avant le lancement d\u2019une nouvelle offensive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poutine, conscient que le temps joue en sa faveur (particuli\u00e8rement \u00e0 l\u2019approche de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine de novembre), semble quant \u00e0 lui peu int\u00e9ress\u00e9 par toute option qui diff\u00e9rerait d\u2019une d\u00e9faite militaire totale de l\u2019Ukraine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Face \u00e0 cette impasse, le processus de paix a \u00e9t\u00e9 externalis\u00e9&#160;: le Danemark, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/08\/07\/la-coalition-pour-mettre-fin-a-la-guerre-en-ukraine-selargit\/\">l\u2019Arabie saoudite<\/a>, Malte et enfin la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/13\/la-quatrieme-conference-sur-la-paix-en-ukraine-souvrira-dans-un-contexte-defavorable-pour-kiev\/#:~:text=Apr%C3%A8s%20une%20premi%C3%A8re%20conf%C3%A9rence%20organis%C3%A9e,paix%20durable%20en%20Ukraine%20%C2%BB1.\">Suisse<\/a> ont accueilli depuis 2023 des conf\u00e9rences sur la paix en Ukraine. Sans participation russe et avec une pr\u00e9sence chinoise in\u00e9gale, celles-ci n\u2019ont produit que des r\u00e9sultats limit\u00e9s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Y9vTF\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Toute l\u2019attention porte d\u00e9sormais sur le sommet qu\u2019accueillera de nouveau la Suisse les 15-16 juin prochain, pour lequel plus de 160 pays ont \u00e9t\u00e9 invit\u00e9s. Tandis que la Russie n\u2019a pas encore re\u00e7u son carton, la grande inconnue demeure la participation chinoise. Si P\u00e9kin a \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9agi positivement&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 l\u2019initiative, toute participation en-dessous de l\u2019\u00e9chelon minist\u00e9riel serait per\u00e7ue comme un \u00e9chec&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-228315' title='Alessandro Speciale et Bastian Benrath, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-04-10\/switzerland-announces-summit-on-ukraine-peace-plan-on-june-15-16&quot;&gt;Switzerland Announces Summit on Ukraine Peace For Mid-June&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 10 avril 2024.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Lors de sa visite \u00e0 Paris lundi 6 mai, le pr\u00e9sident fran\u00e7ais va certainement tenter de convaincre Xi Jinping de prendre une part plus active dans le processus de paix en Ukraine&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-228315' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2024\/05\/02\/emmanuel-macron-in-his-own-words-english&quot;&gt;Emmanuel Macron in his own words&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Economist&lt;\/em&gt;, 2 mai 2024.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Olaf Scholz avait lui aussi tent\u00e9 quelques semaines plus t\u00f4t&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-228315' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-228315' title='Ken Moritsugu, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/china-germany-scholz-xi-jinping-2de75f16b8f44603dea60eccd35b3d63&quot;&gt;The German chancellor presses China on Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Associated Press&lt;\/em&gt;, 16 avril 2024.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, cela fait 800 jours que la Russie a lanc\u00e9 son invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de l\u2019Ukraine. Malgr\u00e9 plusieurs r\u00e9unions dans les premiers mois du conflit, les n\u00e9gociations visant un arr\u00eat des combats sont aujourd\u2019hui \u00e0 l\u2019arr\u00eat. Le mois prochain, les repr\u00e9sentants de plus de 160 pays ont \u00e9t\u00e9 invit\u00e9s en Suisse pour un sommet sur la paix, mais les avanc\u00e9es potentielles restent limit\u00e9es.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":228321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-228315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":228321,"excerpt":"Aujourd\u2019hui, cela fait 800 jours que la Russie a lanc\u00e9 son invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de l\u2019Ukraine. Malgr\u00e9 plusieurs r\u00e9unions dans les premiers mois du conflit, les n\u00e9gociations visant un arr\u00eat des combats sont aujourd\u2019hui \u00e0 l\u2019arr\u00eat. Le mois prochain, les repr\u00e9sentants de plus de 160 pays ont \u00e9t\u00e9 invit\u00e9s en Suisse pour un sommet sur la paix, mais les avanc\u00e9es potentielles restent limit\u00e9es.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>800 jours de guerre en Ukraine : quelles perspectives pour la paix ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/03\/800-jours-de-guerre-en-ukraine-quelles-perspectives-pour-la-paix\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"800 jours de guerre en Ukraine : quelles perspectives pour la paix ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aujourd\u2019hui, cela fait 800 jours que la Russie a lanc\u00e9 son invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de l\u2019Ukraine. 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