{"id":224724,"date":"2024-04-03T16:50:10","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T14:50:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=224724"},"modified":"2024-04-03T18:38:28","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T16:38:28","slug":"quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/","title":{"rendered":"Quelle sera la riposte de l\u2019Iran apr\u00e8s la frappe d\u2019Isra\u00ebl contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Par son r\u00f4le de pont entre la Syrie et le Hezbollah, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, tu\u00e9 dans une frappe \u00e0 Damas le 1er avril, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/02\/qui-etait-mohammad-reza-zahedi-ennemi-disrael-allie-strategique-du-hezbollah-tue-dans-la-frappe-a-damas\/\">\u00e9tait une figure clef pour la politique de l\u2019Iran dans la r\u00e9gion<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Haut grad\u00e9 du corps des Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution, il avait toutefois un profil moins central que le <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/01\/04\/10-points-sur-la-mort-de-soleymani\/\">g\u00e9n\u00e9ral Soleimani<\/a>, tu\u00e9 en 2020 par un drone am\u00e9ricain et devenu depuis un symbole national dont le portrait est affich\u00e9 sur toutes les ambassades d\u2019Iran.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cet \u00e9l\u00e9ment est essentiel pour tenter de comprendre la logique de la frappe attribu\u00e9e \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/02\/a-damas-liran-touche-par-une-frappe-ciblee-disrael-risque-dune-escalade-regionale\/\">men\u00e9e sans consultation avec les \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a>, et la replacer dans son contexte.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Elle pourrait en effet ne pas avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 con\u00e7ue comme op\u00e9ration d\u2019\u00e9limination pr\u00e9m\u00e9dit\u00e9e d\u2019une figure importante du r\u00e9gime mais plut\u00f4t comme une riposte aux frappes des groupes soutenus par l\u2019Iran qui se sont intensifi\u00e9es ces derniers jours contre Isra\u00ebl.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\"\n    data-shadow=\"false\"\n    data-use-original-file=\"false\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1.png\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"990\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"873\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1-330x291.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1-690x608.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1-690x608.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1.png\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-frappe-Damas-990x873-1-125x110.png\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<p><br>\u00c0 la suite des n\u00e9gociations impliquant le Premier ministre irakien al-Soudani, le principal groupe arm\u00e9 de la R\u00e9sistance islamique en Irak avait annonc\u00e9 le 30 janvier dernier qu\u2019il cesserait ses attaques contre des positions am\u00e9ricaines&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-224724' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-224724' title='Annonce du groupe Kataeb Hezbollah. Timour Azhari, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/iraqs-kataib-hezbollah-suspends-military-operations-us-forces-statement-2024-01-30\/&quot;&gt;Iraq&amp;rsquo;s Kataib Hezbollah says it suspends attacks on US forces&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;Reuters&lt;\/em&gt;, 30 janvier 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Depuis, les attaques de l\u2019organisation se sont concentr\u00e9es sur des cibles isra\u00e9liennes, d\u2019apr\u00e8s les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9colt\u00e9es et compil\u00e9es par le Washington Institute for Near East policy&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-224724' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-224724' title='Washington Institute for Near East Policy, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/tracking-anti-us-strikes-iraq-and-syria-during-gaza-crisis#main-content&quot;&gt;Tracking Anti-U.S. Strikes in Iraq and Syria During the Gaza Crisis&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, April 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019institut, l\u2019\u00e9volution mensuelle du nombre d\u2019attaques r\u00e9ussies de la R\u00e9sistance islamique en Irak contre des cibles isra\u00e9liennes a significativement augment\u00e9&#160;: 0 en octobre, 3 en novembre, 4 en d\u00e9cembre, 11 en janvier, 4 en f\u00e9vrier et 16 en mars.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/A50wa\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Si chacune de ces frappes diff\u00e8rent par sa port\u00e9e et son impact, leur multiplication est ce qui aurait pu conduire Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 la frappe du lundi 1er avril.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Celle-ci est d\u2019ailleurs imm\u00e9diatement cons\u00e9cutive \u00e0 une attaque attribuable \u00e0 la R\u00e9sistance islamique en Irak contre la base navale isra\u00e9lienne d\u2019Eilat, le m\u00eame jour matin, qui aurait caus\u00e9 quelques d\u00e9g\u00e2ts mat\u00e9riels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YJk4P\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment va r\u00e9pliquer l\u2019Iran&#160;?&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La frappe \u00e0 Damas place le r\u00e9gime dans une situation d\u00e9licate. Contrairement \u00e0 l\u2019assassinat de Qassem Soleimani, T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a toujours la possibilit\u00e9 de consid\u00e9rer cette attaque non pas comme relevant d\u2019une escalade mais comme une riposte opportuniste d\u2019Isra\u00ebl dans le contexte des tensions r\u00e9gionales sans chercher \u00e0 escalader. Selon certaines sources, Isra\u00ebl aurait profit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9union de haut niveau dans le b\u00e2timent vis\u00e9 pour frapper.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans cette hypoth\u00e8se, une riposte <em>a minima<\/em> serait envisageable&#160;: l\u2019Iran pourrait inscrire ses repr\u00e9sailles dans la dur\u00e9e par le biais d\u2019une intensification \u00e9tal\u00e9e dans le temps des actions <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/26\/le-futur-dune-ambition-geopolitique-de-liran-dans-lere-post-khamenei-une-conversation-avec-ali-vaez\/\">de ses <em>proxies<\/em> plus ou moins \u00e9loign\u00e9s<\/a> en Irak, au Liban ou au Y\u00e9men.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans le cas contraire, o\u00f9 l\u2019Iran interpr\u00e8te l\u2019action d\u2019Isra\u00ebl comme une escalade, T\u00e9h\u00e9ran pourrait privil\u00e9gier une frappe de drone ou de missiles sur Eilat ou sur un consulat dans un pays de la r\u00e9gion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En tout \u00e9tat de cause, la frappe attribu\u00e9e \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl ne semble pas signaler une volont\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00c9tat h\u00e9breu de faire d\u00e9border le conflit mais semble plut\u00f4t le signe qu\u2019il ne craint pas l\u2019escalade d\u2019une guerre directe avec T\u00e9h\u00e9ran.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon l\u2019ancien chef des renseignements britanniques (MI6), Isra\u00ebl aurait dans cette s\u00e9quence tir\u00e9 parti de la prudence affich\u00e9e par le Hezbollah et l\u2019Iran pour adopter une attitude plus agressive&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-224724' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-224724' title='Patrick Wintour, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/apr\/02\/iran-response-israeli-strike-damascus-consulate&quot;&gt;Iran decides on response to Israeli strike that killed top commanders&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Guardian&lt;\/em&gt;, 2 avril 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 des menaces de repr\u00e9sailles \u00ab&#160;appropri\u00e9es&#160;\u00bb et la d\u00e9claration de l\u2019ayatollah Khamenei selon laquelle l\u2019Iran ferait \u00ab&#160;regretter ce crime&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl, les autorit\u00e9s iraniennes n\u2019ont pas pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 la nature de leur r\u00e9ponse. Isra\u00ebl n\u2019a de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 toujours pas explicitement revendiqu\u00e9 cette action. Devant une commission de la Knesset, le ministre de la D\u00e9fense Yoav Gallant a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 dans une r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 peine voil\u00e9e \u00e0 la frappe&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Nous sommes dans une guerre \u00e0 plusieurs fronts, en attaque et en d\u00e9fense. Nous en avons la preuve tous les jours, y compris ces jours-ci&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a promis hier des repr\u00e9sailles \u00e0 la frappe contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas, qui a tu\u00e9 Mohammad Reza Zahedi et six autres Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution. Pour comprendre cette s\u00e9quence, il faut l\u2019inscrire dans le contexte de l\u2019intensification des attaques contre Isra\u00ebl par des groupes arm\u00e9s soutenus par l\u2019Iran \u2014 qui pourrait choisir d\u2019\u00e9viter l\u2019escalade \u00e0 ce stade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6617,"featured_media":224730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_source":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3611],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[530],"class_list":["post-224724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-de-soukkot","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-asie-intermediaire"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":224730,"excerpt":"T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a promis hier des repr\u00e9sailles \u00e0 la frappe contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas, qui a tu\u00e9 Mohammad Reza Zahedi et six autres Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution. Pour comprendre cette s\u00e9quence, il faut l\u2019inscrire dans le contexte de l\u2019intensification des attaques contre Isra\u00ebl par des groupes arm\u00e9s soutenus par l\u2019Iran \u2014 qui pourrait choisir d\u2019\u00e9viter l\u2019escalade \u00e0 ce stade.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Quelle sera la riposte de l\u2019Iran apr\u00e8s la frappe d\u2019Isra\u00ebl contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quelle sera la riposte de l\u2019Iran apr\u00e8s la frappe d\u2019Isra\u00ebl contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a promis hier des repr\u00e9sailles \u00e0 la frappe contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas, qui a tu\u00e9 Mohammad Reza Zahedi et six autres Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution. Pour comprendre cette s\u00e9quence, il faut l\u2019inscrire dans le contexte de l\u2019intensification des attaques contre Isra\u00ebl par des groupes arm\u00e9s soutenus par l\u2019Iran \u2014 qui pourrait choisir d\u2019\u00e9viter l\u2019escalade \u00e0 ce stade.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-03T14:50:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-03T16:38:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/gc-share-attaques-rii.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1202\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"928\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"elenam\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"elenam\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/03\/quelle-riposte-de-liran-suite-a-lattaque-disrael-contre-son-ambassade-a-damas\/\",\"name\":\"Quelle sera la riposte de l\u2019Iran apr\u00e8s la frappe d\u2019Isra\u00ebl contre la section consulaire de son ambassade \u00e0 Damas ? 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