{"id":221989,"date":"2024-03-12T18:19:17","date_gmt":"2024-03-12T17:19:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=221989"},"modified":"2024-03-12T18:19:17","modified_gmt":"2024-03-12T17:19:17","slug":"que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/","title":{"rendered":"Que nous dit la performance de Trump durant les primaires sur l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Quasiment tous les sondages le disent&#160;: Trump est le favori pour l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de novembre. Que ce soit au niveau national <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/11\/06\/un-an-avant-les-elections-americaines-de-2024-le-soutien-en-faveur-de-biden-faiblit\/\">ou bien dans les <em>swing-states<\/em><\/a>, le pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9mocrate accuse un retard de plusieurs points sur son rival r\u00e9publicain&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-221989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-221989' title='Gregory Korte, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-02-29\/biden-age-worries-swing-state-voters-trump-seen-as-dangerous-poll-shows&quot;&gt;Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous, Swing-State Poll Shows&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 29 f\u00e9vrier 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Avec <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/06\/nikki-haley-se-retire-de-la-campagne-apres-sa-defaite-au-cours-du-super-tuesday\/\">l\u2019abandon de Nikki Haley<\/a>, Trump est incontestablement la seule figure du Parti r\u00e9publicain qui dispose du soutien d\u2019une majorit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs du GOP.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sa mainmise sur le parti s\u2019\u00e9tend au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat&#160;: le week-dernier, l\u2019ex-pr\u00e9sident a plac\u00e9 sa belle-fille et son alli\u00e9 Michael Whatley \u00e0 la t\u00eate du Republican National Committee, l\u2019instance de direction du Parti r\u00e9publicain&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-221989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-221989' title='Michael Gold, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/08\/us\/politics\/trump-rnc-lara-michael-whatley.html&quot;&gt;Trump Ally and Daughter-in-Law Officially Take Over R.N.C. Leadership&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 8 mars 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Suite aux primaires qui se tiennent aujourd\u2019hui en G\u00e9orgie, dans le Mississippi, \u00e0 Washington et \u00e0 Hawa\u00ef, Trump devrait remporter les 1 215 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s requis pour s\u2019assurer la nomination du GOP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/D4KwN\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 huit mois de l\u2019\u00e9lection, ces sondages doivent n\u00e9anmoins \u00eatre pris avec une certaine distance. Comme nous le montrent les \u00e9carts de performance entre les moyennes pr\u00e9-scrutin et les r\u00e9sultats obtenus lors des primaires, Donald Trump n\u2019est pas \u00e0 l\u2019abri de sous-performer en novembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Au 12 mars, 26 \u00c9tats et territoires ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 tenu des primaires ou caucus r\u00e9publicains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans la quasi-totalit\u00e9 des primaires \u2014 mis \u00e0 part en Caroline du Nord \u2014, Donald Trump a gagn\u00e9 avec une marge inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne des sondages.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans le Michigan \u2014 remport\u00e9 par Biden avec une avance de 2,78&#160;% en 2020 \u2014, qui sera particuli\u00e8rement d\u00e9terminant en novembre pour le coll\u00e8ge \u00e9lectoral, la moyenne de FiveThirtyEight voyait Trump l\u2019emporter avec une marge de 57&#160;%&#160;: celle-ci a finalement \u00e9t\u00e9 de 42&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-221989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-221989' title='Il convient de pr\u00e9ciser ici que les primaires dans le Michigan sont ouvertes \u00e0 tous les \u00e9lecteurs, m\u00eame s\u2019ils ne sont pas membres du Parti r\u00e9publicain.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/x1Kx0\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump a eu d\u2019excellents r\u00e9sultats dans les parties rurales de l\u2019\u00c9tat mais a obtenu des marges bien plus faibles dans les riches comt\u00e9s d\u2019Oakland (61&#160;%) et de Kent (59&#160;%) notamment \u2014 qui lui ont co\u00fbt\u00e9 l\u2019\u00c9tat en 2020&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-221989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-221989' title='Jonathan Oosting, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bridgemi.com\/michigan-government\/despite-michigan-primary-wins-signs-trouble-trump-and-biden&quot;&gt;Despite Michigan primary wins, signs of trouble for Trump and Biden&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, Bridge Michigan, 28 f\u00e9vrier 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Lors de l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre, la mobilisation de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat d\u00e9mocrate ou une abstention r\u00e9publicaine plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e qu\u2019anticip\u00e9e pourrait faire basculer le r\u00e9sultat de l\u2019\u00e9lection g\u00e9n\u00e9rale.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 l\u2019issue des quatre primaires qui se tiennent aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 12 mars, Donald Trump devrait avoir assez de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s pour assurer sa nomination par le GOP. S\u2019il a domin\u00e9 ses adversaires pendant la primaire r\u00e9publicaine, les \u00e9carts entre les sondages et ses performances r\u00e9elles fournissent n\u00e9anmoins un signal important pour l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":221992,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-221989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trump-contre-biden-pour-la-maison-blanche-suivre-les-elections-americaines-2024","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Que nous dit la performance de Trump durant les primaires sur l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Que nous dit la performance de Trump durant les primaires sur l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00c0 l\u2019issue des quatre primaires qui se tiennent aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 12 mars, Donald Trump devrait avoir assez de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s pour assurer sa nomination par le GOP. S\u2019il a domin\u00e9 ses adversaires pendant la primaire r\u00e9publicaine, les \u00e9carts entre les sondages et ses performances r\u00e9elles fournissent n\u00e9anmoins un signal important pour l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-12T17:19:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/gc-trump-performance-primaires-e1710263163860.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"815\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/gc-trump-performance-primaires-e1710263163860.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/12\/que-nous-dit-la-performance-de-trump-durant-les-primaires-sur-lelection-de-novembre\/\",\"name\":\"Que nous dit la performance de Trump durant les primaires sur l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre ? 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