{"id":220801,"date":"2024-03-02T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-02T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=220801"},"modified":"2024-03-01T17:14:02","modified_gmt":"2024-03-01T16:14:02","slug":"la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/","title":{"rendered":"La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe, deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Les sondages du Levada Center r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que la population russe a toujours majoritairement soutenu la guerre en Ukraine. Si l\u2019on additionne la part de sond\u00e9s d\u00e9clarant \u00ab&#160;absolument&#160;\u00bb et \u00ab&#160;plut\u00f4t&#160;\u00bb soutenir \u00ab&#160;les actions des forces militaires russes en Ukraine&#160;\u00bb, la proportion a augment\u00e9 en novembre 2023 (74&#160;%) par rapport \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier 2022 (68&#160;%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/bkQ3s\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La structure du soutien \u00e0 l\u2019action de Vladimir Poutine est n\u00e9anmoins plus complexe, deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion du 24 f\u00e9vrier 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Entre mai et novembre 2023, la part de Russes sond\u00e9s se d\u00e9clarant en faveur de n\u00e9gociations de paix avec l\u2019Ukraine a augment\u00e9 d\u2019un quart, passant de 45&#160;% \u00e0 57&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-220801' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-220801' title='Denis Volkov, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/russiapost.info\/society\/two_years&quot;&gt;Russian Society Two Years Into the Ukraine Conflict&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Russia Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 26 f\u00e9vrier 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette augmentation observ\u00e9e l\u2019an dernier est \u00e0 mettre en miroir avec le constat dress\u00e9 par les m\u00e9dias russes <em>Meduza <\/em>et <em>Mediazona <\/em>dans leur derni\u00e8re enqu\u00eate&#160;: m\u00eame si <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/en-ukraine-le-controle-territorial-na-presque-pas-bouge-en-2023\/\">la ligne de front est rest\u00e9e quasiment gel\u00e9e en 2023<\/a>, les pertes russes ont plus que doubl\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, passant de 24 000 morts \u00e0 plus de 50 000 l\u2019an dernier&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-220801' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-220801' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/meduza.io\/feature\/2024\/02\/24\/75-tysyach-pogibshih-rossiyskih-soldat&quot;&gt;75 \u0442\u044b\u0441\u044f\u0447 \u043f\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0431\u0448\u0438\u0445 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0441\u043e\u043b\u0434\u0430\u0442 120 \u0441\u043c\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0439 \u0432 \u0434\u0435\u043d\u044c \u2014 \u0432\u043e\u0442 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0443\u044e \u043f\u043b\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0442 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0437\u0430 \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0435\u0434\u043d\u044e\u044e \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0443. \u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0435 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u043e\u0435 \u0438\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u00ab&amp;#160;\u041c\u0435\u0434\u0443\u0437\u044b&amp;#160;\u00bb \u0438 \u00ab&amp;#160;\u041c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430\u0437\u043e\u043d\u044b&amp;#160;\u00bb \u043e \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u0440\u044f\u0445&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Meduza&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 f\u00e9vrier 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au m\u00eame moment, Volodymyr Zelensky d\u00e9clarait que 31 000 soldats ukrainiens ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tu\u00e9s au combat depuis f\u00e9vrier 2022 \u2014 13 000 en 2022 et 18 000 en 2023&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-220801' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-220801' title='Serhiy Morgunov, Siobh\u00e1n O&amp;rsquo;Grady et David L. Stern, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/02\/25\/ukraine-war-casualties-zelensky-russia\/?utm_medium=email&amp;amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;amp;wpisrc=nl_todayworld&amp;amp;utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&amp;amp;carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3cdf64f%2F65dc1d2f0b576c5859d4d714%2F6100031eae7e8a0db1e98a56%2F30%2F59%2F65dc1d2f0b576c5859d4d714&quot;&gt;Zelensky says 31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since invasion&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Washington Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 25 f\u00e9vrier 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/16989999\/embed\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Il est int\u00e9ressant de constater que l\u2019augmentation parmi la population russe du souhait d\u2019entamer des n\u00e9gociations de paix avec l\u2019Ukraine n\u2019entre pas en opposition avec le soutien \u00e0 la guerre elle-m\u00eame, sugg\u00e9rant une forme de r\u00e9signation vis-\u00e0-vis de ce que la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe serait en droit d\u2019esp\u00e9rer de Vladimir Poutine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon la derni\u00e8re enqu\u00eate de Chronicles, un projet de recherche lanc\u00e9 par l\u2019opposant au Kremlin Aleksei Miniailo, une majorit\u00e9 de Russes souhaite la fin de la guerre et des sanctions \u2014 mais ne pense pas \u00eatre en mesure de les obtenir si Poutine reste au pouvoir&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-220801' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-220801' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.chronicles.report\/en&quot;&gt;Chronicles, chapitre 12&lt;\/a&gt;.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/hQ0Jx\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Il convient de noter que les 1 602 personnes sond\u00e9es ne s\u2019attendent pas \u00e0 ce que leur \u00ab&#160;candidat id\u00e9al&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence soit parfaitement align\u00e9 sur les envies de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe&#160;: dans tous les sc\u00e9narios, celui-ci se trouve plus ou moins \u00e0 mi-chemin entre ce \u00e0 quoi les \u00e9lecteurs s\u2019attendent de la part de Poutine en cas de victoire et ce que ces derniers souhaitent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans les sc\u00e9narios relevant de la guerre et de ses cons\u00e9quences, les r\u00e9ponses indiquent une forme de r\u00e9signation&#160;: 50,6&#160;% souhaitent un r\u00e9tablissement des relations avec l\u2019Occident, mais seulement 32&#160;% pensent qu\u2019un candidat autre que Poutine sera en mesure d\u2019y arriver.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce candidat \u00ab&#160;id\u00e9al&#160;\u00bb ne rel\u00e8ve dans tous les cas que d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario fictif. Depuis l\u2019invasion du 24 f\u00e9vrier 2022, la r\u00e9pression de l\u2019opposition s\u2019est renforc\u00e9e en Russie&#160;: le principal opposant au Kremlin, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/02\/01\/conversation-avec-alexei-navalny\/\">Alexe\u00ef Navalny<\/a>, est mort le 16 f\u00e9vrier, tandis que d\u2019autres figures de l\u2019opposition, comme <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/27\/defier-poutine-une-conversation-avec-ekaterina-duntsova-nouveau-visage-de-lopposition-en-russie\/\">Ekaterina Duntsova<\/a>, n\u2019ont m\u00eame pas \u00e9t\u00e9 autoris\u00e9es \u00e0 se pr\u00e9senter \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une dizaine de jours apr\u00e8s l&rsquo;enterrement de l&rsquo;opposant Alexe\u00ef Navalny, le pr\u00e9sident russe Vladimir Poutine devrait \u00eatre r\u00e9\u00e9lu \u00e0 la t\u00eate du pays le 17 mars. Plus de deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion du 24 f\u00e9vrier 2022, les enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion d\u00e9peignent une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe r\u00e9sign\u00e9e face \u00e0 la perspective d\u2019une guerre longue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":220807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3712],"tags":[],"geo":[550],"class_list":["post-220801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine-la-guerre-deux-ans-apres","geo-russie"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe, deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe, deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Une dizaine de jours apr\u00e8s l&#039;enterrement de l&#039;opposant Alexe\u00ef Navalny, le pr\u00e9sident russe Vladimir Poutine devrait \u00eatre r\u00e9\u00e9lu \u00e0 la t\u00eate du pays le 17 mars. Plus de deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion du 24 f\u00e9vrier 2022, les enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion d\u00e9peignent une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe r\u00e9sign\u00e9e face \u00e0 la perspective d\u2019une guerre longue.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/02\/la-societe-russe-deux-ans-apres-linvasion-a-grande-echelle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-02T16:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/gc-russie-deux-ans-apres-e1709307562157.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"815\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" 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