{"id":217236,"date":"2024-02-06T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-06T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=217236"},"modified":"2024-02-06T11:40:32","modified_gmt":"2024-02-06T10:40:32","slug":"aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/","title":{"rendered":"Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la campagne la plus longue et ch\u00e8re de l\u2019histoire&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Les primaires peuvent \u00eatre comp\u00e9titives \u2014 comme ce f\u00fbt le cas pour le GOP en 2012 \u2014 ou pas du tout, comme en 2020, conduisant \u00e0 une campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle <em>de facto <\/em>plus longue, les candidats n\u2019ayant pas \u00e0 attendre l\u2019investiture de leur parti lors des conventions nationales de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2024 est diff\u00e9rente \u00e0 plusieurs \u00e9gards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sauf \u00e9v\u00e9nement perturbateur majeur, on sait d\u00e9j\u00e0 que Biden et Trump devraient remporter l\u2019investiture de leur parti \u2014 soit <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/15\/trump-biden-a-nouveau-10-experts-americains-sur-la-campagne-presidentielle\/\">la premi\u00e8re fois<\/a> que deux pr\u00e9sidents cons\u00e9cutifs s\u2019affronteront depuis 1892.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si Biden est quasiment certain d\u2019\u00eatre le candidat du Parti d\u00e9mocrate, Trump pourrait avoir \u00e0 attendre jusqu\u2019au 12 mars pour remporter les 1 215 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 l\u2019investiture par le GOP.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Haley pourrait n\u00e9anmoins abandonner bien avant, potentiellement suite \u00e0 la primaire de Caroline du Sud qui se tiendra le 24 f\u00e9vrier \u2014 bien qu\u2019elle ait d\u00e9clar\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/24\/trump-a-remporte-la-primaire-du-new-hampshire-quelle-suite-pour-haley\/\">New Hampshire<\/a> qu\u2019elle n\u2019abandonnerait pas&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-217236' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-217236' title='Ron DeSantis avait lui aussi d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il n\u2019abandonnerait pas la primaire, avant de le faire quelques jours plus tard. Sur Haley&amp;#160;: Natasha Korecki, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/haley-refuse-drop-out-loss-new-hampshire-trump-rcna134767&quot;&gt;Nikki Haley refuses to quit, insisting she can still beat Trump&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;NBC News&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 janvier 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/e2FNZ\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans ce cas de figure, le sc\u00e9nario serait in\u00e9dit&#160;: les deux candidats \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche les plus \u00e2g\u00e9s s\u2019opposeraient au cours de la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle la plus longue de l\u2019histoire r\u00e9cente du pays. Lors de la campagne de 2004 \u2014 la plus longue \u00e0 ce jour \u2014, John Kerry avait quasiment assur\u00e9 sa nomination d\u00e8s le 10 mars, tandis que George W. Bush n\u2019avait pas d\u2019opposant&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-217236' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-217236' title='Ed Kilgore, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/nymag.com\/intelligencer\/2023\/12\/biden-trump-longest-election.html&quot;&gt;Biden-Trump 2024 Could Be the Longest Election in Decades&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;New York Magazine&lt;\/em&gt;, 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/D4KwN\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cette configuration aura un impact tr\u00e8s concret sur la perception des \u00e9lecteurs, et donc les chiffres des sondages.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les deux candidats sont impopulaires, enclins \u00e0 faire des erreurs et \u00e0 tenir des propos incoh\u00e9rents lors de leurs apparitions publiques, tandis que leur \u00e2ge n\u00e9cessitera un arbitrage constant de la part de leurs \u00e9quipes de campagne&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-217236' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-217236' title='Annie Linskey, Alex Leary et Suzanne Vranica, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/elections\/biden-trump-campaign-longest-ever-age-7e849b34&quot;&gt;Get Ready for the Longest Presidential Campaign Ever, Featuring the Oldest Candidates&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 27 janvier 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pour Trump, cet \u00e9quilibre sera d\u2019autant plus difficile que ses divers proc\u00e8s interf\u00e9reront avec sa campagne.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YKfZy\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>En raison de la hausse des budgets allou\u00e9s par les campagnes aux publicit\u00e9s t\u00e9l\u00e9vis\u00e9es et autres supports, AdImpact<em> <\/em>estime que 2023-2024 constituera le cycle \u00e9lectoral le plus co\u00fbteux de l\u2019histoire am\u00e9ricaine, avec 10,2 milliards de dollars de d\u00e9pense \u2014 soit 13&#160;% de plus que le cycle 2019-2020&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-217236' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-217236' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/documents\/0f1072c7-8e0a-4303-b3f2-2ea9106dc212.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_81&quot;&gt;2023-2024 Projections&lt;\/a&gt;, AdImpact.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. L\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle, la plus ch\u00e8re, devrait \u00e0 elle seule g\u00e9n\u00e9rer 2,7 milliards de dollars de d\u00e9penses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tandis que Joe Biden est certain d\u2019\u00eatre investi par son parti pour l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre, Donald Trump ne fait face \u00e0 aucune opposition r\u00e9elle. Si Nikki Haley abandonne apr\u00e8s la primaire du 24 f\u00e9vrier en Caroline du Sud, la campagne de 2024 sera la plus longue de l\u2019histoire r\u00e9cente du pays.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":217240,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-217236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trump-contre-biden-pour-la-maison-blanche-suivre-les-elections-americaines-2024","geo-ameriques"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la campagne la plus longue et ch\u00e8re de l\u2019histoire ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la campagne la plus longue et ch\u00e8re de l\u2019histoire ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tandis que Joe Biden est certain d\u2019\u00eatre investi par son parti pour l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre, Donald Trump ne fait face \u00e0 aucune opposition r\u00e9elle. Si Nikki Haley abandonne apr\u00e8s la primaire du 24 f\u00e9vrier en Caroline du Sud, la campagne de 2024 sera la plus longue de l\u2019histoire r\u00e9cente du pays.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-02-06T12:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/gc-campagne-plus-longue-chere-US-e1707214378916.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"813\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/gc-campagne-plus-longue-chere-US-e1707214378916.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/06\/aux-etats-unis-la-campagne-la-plus-longue-et-chere-de-lhistoire\/\",\"name\":\"Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la campagne la plus longue et ch\u00e8re de l\u2019histoire ? 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