{"id":216751,"date":"2024-01-31T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=216751"},"modified":"2024-01-31T17:15:51","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T16:15:51","slug":"soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/","title":{"rendered":"Soutenue par les revenus p\u00e9troliers, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe se maintient\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Hier, le FMI a largement revu \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe pour 2024 (+1,5&#160;%) par rapport \u00e0 ses derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions d\u2019octobre, pr\u00e9voyant d\u00e9sormais une croissance de 2,6&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-216751' title='IMF, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/01\/30\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024&quot;&gt;World Economic Outlook&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 January 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> (contre 3&#160;% pour 2023).&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le Fonds attribue cette r\u00e9vision aux d\u00e9penses militaires \u00e9lev\u00e9es ainsi qu\u2019au maintien de la consommation priv\u00e9e, soutenue par une hausse des salaires. Ces pr\u00e9visions sont toutefois fond\u00e9es sur des statistiques russes, \u00e0 prendre avec pr\u00e9caution.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les pr\u00e9visions du FMI sont d\u2019ailleurs plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es que celles de la Banque mondiale, qui tablait d\u00e9but janvier sur une croissance de 1,3&#160;% en 2024 et de 0,9&#160;% en 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Russie a \u00e9galement connu une r\u00e9duction de son d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire en 2023, qui s\u2019est \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00e0 1,9&#160;% du PIB contre 2,3&#160;% en 2022.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le minist\u00e8re des Finances russe a annonc\u00e9 une cible de moins de 1&#160;% de d\u00e9ficit pour 2024-2026&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-216751' title='TASS, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/tass.com\/economy\/1708639&quot;&gt;Russia\u2019s federal budget deficit in 2024-2026 not to exceed 1&amp;#160;% of GDP \u2014 finance minister&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 22 November 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3HssJ\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La Russie continue de faire preuve d\u2019une forte r\u00e9sistance aux <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/03\/27\/conversation-avec-serguei-gouriev\/\">sanctions sur les ventes de p\u00e9trole<\/a> \u2014 de l\u2019embargo europ\u00e9en au plafonnement du prix \u00e0 60 dollars le baril impos\u00e9 par le G7.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/2Ccig\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fin d\u00e9cembre 2023, les livraisons vers l\u2019Asie \u00e9taient 130&#160;% plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es qu\u2019au mois de janvier 2022.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En 2023, la Russie est notamment devenue le premier fournisseur de p\u00e9trole de l\u2019Inde d&rsquo;apr\u00e8s S&amp;P. Avec 1,7 million de barils par jour, la Russie repr\u00e9sentait plus de 35&#160;% du volume des importations indiennes&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-216751' title='S&amp;amp;P, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/commodityinsights\/en\/market-insights\/latest-news\/oil\/010824-red-sea-woes-unlikely-to-dent-russias-position-as-indias-top-crude-supplier#:~:text=According%20to%20S%26P%20Global%20data,to%201.7%20million%20b%2Fd.&quot;&gt;Red Sea woes unlikely to dent Russia&amp;rsquo;s position as India&amp;rsquo;s top crude supplier&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 8 January 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Russie aurait vendu son p\u00e9trole \u00e0 un prix moyen de 72 dollars le baril en 2023, soit 12 dollars de plus que le plafond impos\u00e9 par le G7, d\u2019apr\u00e8s une analyse des donn\u00e9es douani\u00e8res indiennes men\u00e9e par Bloomberg&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-216751' title='Bloomberg, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2023-12-06\/oil-prices-how-russia-punched-an-11-billion-hole-in-west-s-sanctions-regime&quot;&gt;How Russia Punched an $11 Billion Hole in the West\u2019s Oil Sanctions&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 6 December 2023.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/H8HRL\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Avec le passage par des interm\u00e9diaires, dont la Turquie&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-216751' title='Financial Times, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e5be1cac-3901-4066-a036-f78546b55eaf&quot;&gt;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e5be1cac-3901-4066-a036-f78546b55eaf&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 January 2024.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, les livraisons de p\u00e9trole d\u2019origine russe se poursuivent y compris vers des pays europ\u00e9ens ayant mis en place un embargo \u2013 dont la Belgique, la Gr\u00e8ce et les Pays-Bas, d\u2019apr\u00e8s une r\u00e9cente enqu\u00eate du Financial Times.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Malgr\u00e9 une baisse des revenus fiscaux li\u00e9s \u00e0 l&rsquo;industrie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re en 2023 par rapport \u00e0 2022 \u2014 due notamment \u00e0 une baisse des prix \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale \u2014, ceux-ci repr\u00e9sentaient un tiers des recettes fiscales totales du pays en 2023&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-216751' title='Bloomberg, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-01-11\/russian-government-s-2023-oil-and-gas-revenue-curbed-by-sanctions-cheaper-crude&quot;&gt;Russia\u2019s 2023 Oil and Gas Revenue Curbed by Sanctions, Cheaper Crude&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 11 January 2024.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bien que les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques montrent des signes d\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e, afin de r\u00e9pondre aux besoins de la guerre en Ukraine, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe continue de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/09\/24\/le-budget-de-la-defense-devient-le-premier-poste-de-depense-de-la-russie-avec-une-augmentation-de-70-prevue-pour-2024\/\">se d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibrer<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La pression qu\u2019exerce la guerre sur la main-d&rsquo;\u0153uvre risquent de se prolonger en 2024, apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9nurie estim\u00e9e \u00e0 4,8 millions d\u2019emplois en 2023&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-216751' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-216751' title='Reuters, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russia-short-around-48-million-workers-2023-crunch-persist-izvestia-2023-12-24\/&quot;&gt;Russia short of around 4.8 million workers in 2023, crunch to persist &amp;#8211; Izvestia&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 24 December 2024.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La banque centrale russe rappelait par ailleurs en d\u00e9cembre que \u00ab&#160;les pressions inflationnistes restent \u00e9lev\u00e9es&#160;\u00bb \u2013 l\u2019inflation \u00e9tait de 7,4&#160;% en glissement annuel ce m\u00eame mois.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon le FMI, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe se portera mieux que pr\u00e9vu en 2024, avec une croissance de 2,6&#160;&#160;%. Si les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques traduisent une bonne r\u00e9sistance aux sanctions occidentales, l\u2019\u00e9conomie de guerre de Poutine continue de provoquer d&rsquo;importants d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6617,"featured_media":216752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-216751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Soutenue par les revenus p\u00e9troliers, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe se maintient\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Soutenue par les revenus p\u00e9troliers, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe se maintient\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon le FMI, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe se portera mieux que pr\u00e9vu en 2024, avec une croissance de 2,6&#160;%. Si les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques traduisent une bonne r\u00e9sistance aux sanctions occidentales, l\u2019\u00e9conomie de guerre de Poutine continue de provoquer d&#039;importants d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/31\/soutenue-par-les-revenus-petroliers-leconomie-russe-se-maintient\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-31T13:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-31T16:15:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/gc-share-petrole-russe.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1492\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"892\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"elenam\" \/>\n<meta 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