{"id":214407,"date":"2024-01-05T12:05:55","date_gmt":"2024-01-05T11:05:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=214407"},"modified":"2024-01-05T12:09:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-05T11:09:00","slug":"pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi l\u2019inflation remonte-elle en Europe&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>En novembre, l\u2019inflation en zone euro atteignait son niveau le plus faible depuis plus de deux ans \u00e0 2,4&#160;% en glissement annuel. Celle-ci avait notamment \u00e9t\u00e9 tir\u00e9e vers le haut en raison de l\u2019augmentation des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie provoqu\u00e9e par l\u2019invasion russe de l\u2019Ukraine et ses cons\u00e9quences sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d&rsquo;approvisionnement du continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/01epU\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les derniers chiffres publi\u00e9s par Paris, Berlin et l\u2019agence Eurostat vendredi 5 janvier r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que l\u2019inflation a augment\u00e9 de 0,5&#160;% dans la zone euro entre novembre et d\u00e9cembre, passant de 2,4&#160;% \u00e0 2,9&#160;% en glissement annuel&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-214407' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-214407' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/documents\/2995521\/18261481\/2-05012024-AP-EN.pdf\/a80f5906-6834-0dae-2eae-44ac9a59e946&quot;&gt;Flash estimate &amp;#8211; December 2023. Euro area annual inflation up to 2.9&amp;#160;%&lt;\/a&gt;, Eurostat, 5 janvier 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En Allemagne, l\u2019inflation a augment\u00e9 de 1,5&#160;% en un mois, passant de 2,3&#160;% \u00e0 3,8&#160;%. En France, si la hausse a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus faible (+ 0,2&#160;%), le taux d\u2019inflation annuel \u00e9tait de 4,1&#160;% en d\u00e9cembre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse de l\u2019inflation a touch\u00e9 presque la moiti\u00e9 des pays de la zone euro en d\u00e9cembre&#160;: Autriche, Estonie, France, Allemagne, Gr\u00e8ce, Irlande, Luxembourg, Finlande et Belgique.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/aLHYW\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon l\u2019Institut national de la statistique et des \u00e9tudes \u00e9conomiques (Insee) fran\u00e7ais, cette hausse serait due \u00e0 \u00ab&#160;l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration sur un an des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des services&#160;\u00bb, tandis que les prix des produits manufactur\u00e9s et de l\u2019alimentation \u00ab&#160;ralentiraient de nouveau&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-214407' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-214407' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.insee.fr\/en\/statistiques\/7744813&quot;&gt;In December 2023, consumer prices increased by 3.7&amp;#160;% year on year&lt;\/a&gt;, Insee, 4 janvier 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Ce constat est partag\u00e9 par le Statistisches Bundesamt allemand qui attribue l\u2019\u00e9volution de d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 la mesure introduite l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente par Berlin visant \u00e0 r\u00e9duire le co\u00fbt du gaz et du chauffage pour les consommateurs. Celle-ci ayant eu un \u00ab&#160;effet mod\u00e9rateur sur l&rsquo;indice global en d\u00e9cembre 2022&#160;\u00bb, elle a par cons\u00e9quent \u00ab&#160;pouss\u00e9 l&rsquo;indice \u00e0 la hausse en d\u00e9cembre 2023&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-214407' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-214407' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.destatis.de\/EN\/Press\/2024\/01\/PE24_003_611.html&quot;&gt;Inflation rate of +3.7&amp;#160;% expected in December 2023&lt;\/a&gt;, Statistisches Bundesamt, 4 janvier 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces tendances devraient avoir un impact sur les prochaines d\u00e9cisions de la BCE. En effet, au mois de d\u00e9cembre, les march\u00e9s avaient anticip\u00e9 six baisses de taux d&rsquo;un quart de point par la BCE en 2024, ce qui porterait le taux directeur \u00e0 2,5&#160;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lors de la derni\u00e8re r\u00e9union du 14 d\u00e9cembre, la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de ne pas apporter de changement \u00e0 ses taux directeurs&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-214407' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-214407' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pressconf\/visual-mps\/2023\/html\/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html&quot;&gt;Our monetary policy statement at a glance &amp;#8211; December 2023&lt;\/a&gt;, Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne, 14 d\u00e9cembre 2023.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si une potentielle hausse du taux de l\u2019inflation avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 signal\u00e9e par la BCE, qui y voit plut\u00f4t une \u00ab&#160;mod\u00e9ration&#160;\u00bb du rythme de la baisse de l\u2019inflation que l\u2019annonce d\u2019un renversement durable de la tendance&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-214407' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-214407' title='Craig Stirling et Barbara Sladkowska, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-12-29\/euro-zone-inflation-bump-won-t-alarm-ecb-inching-to-rate-pivot?utm_content=business&amp;amp;utm_medium=social&amp;amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&amp;amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&quot;&gt;Euro-Zone Inflation Bump Won\u2019t Alarm ECB Inching to Rate Pivot&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 29 d\u00e9cembre 2023.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, le vice-pr\u00e9sident de l\u2019institution Luis de Guindos d\u00e9clarait le 21 d\u00e9cembre&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Lorsque nous verrons que l&rsquo;inflation converge clairement et de mani\u00e8re stable vers notre objectif de 2&#160;%, la politique mon\u00e9taire pourra alors commencer \u00e0 s&rsquo;assouplir. Mais il est encore trop t\u00f4t pour cela&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-214407' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-214407' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/inter\/date\/2023\/html\/ecb.in231221~65b3a3b19b.en.html&quot;&gt;Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Emilio Ordiz and Jorge Mill\u00e1n&lt;\/a&gt;, Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne, 21 d\u00e9cembre 2023.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En effet, les multiples prises de paroles des membres du conseil d&rsquo;administration et du Conseil des gouverneurs au cours du mois de d\u00e9cembre indiquent un d\u00e9bat croissant au sein de la BCE. Seul le pr\u00e9sident de la Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, a soulign\u00e9 la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de maintenir une hausse des taux comme une option pour les prochains mois.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cependant, les derniers chiffres de l\u2019inflation, les faibles variations de l\u2019inflation sous-jacente ainsi que la dynamique salariale laissent penser que les march\u00e9s surinterpr\u00e9tent certains signaux et que la probabilit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un assouplissement imm\u00e9diat est faible. La prochaine r\u00e9union de la BCE est pr\u00e9vue pour le 25 janvier.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kVxCY\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, l\u2019inflation (3,1&#160;% en glissement annuel en novembre) pr\u00e9sente des signes de ralentissement plus importants qu\u2019attendus qui devraient mener \u00e0 un assouplissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale \u2014 dont les taux directeurs se situent \u00e0 ce jour entre 5,25 et 5,5&#160;%. Les baisses de taux sont estim\u00e9es \u00e0 ce jour \u00e0 75 points de base sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e par les investisseurs, sur la base de l\u2019intervention de d\u00e9cembre du pr\u00e9sident de la Fed, Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En Allemagne, en France et dans sept autres pays de la zone euro, l\u2019inflation annuelle a augment\u00e9 en d\u00e9cembre apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode de baisse. Comment expliquer cette hausse et quelles pourraient en \u00eatre les cons\u00e9quences sur les futures d\u00e9cisions de la BCE&#160;&#160;?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":214406,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-214407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pourquoi l\u2019inflation remonte-elle en Europe ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/05\/pourquoi-linflation-remonte-elle-en-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pourquoi l\u2019inflation remonte-elle en Europe ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En Allemagne, en France et dans sept autres pays de la zone euro, l\u2019inflation annuelle a augment\u00e9 en d\u00e9cembre apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode de baisse. 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