{"id":211251,"date":"2023-12-05T11:08:15","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T10:08:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=211251"},"modified":"2023-12-05T12:39:24","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T11:39:24","slug":"quelles-perspectives-economiques-pour-la-chine-en-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/12\/05\/quelles-perspectives-economiques-pour-la-chine-en-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Quelles perspectives \u00e9conomiques pour la Chine en 2024&#160;?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>En 2023, P\u00e9kin a mis en place une s\u00e9rie de mesures de soutien \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Afin de stimuler la reprise de la croissance, le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 en octobre un ajustement \u00e0 la hausse de son d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire pour 2023, de 3&#160;% \u00e0 3,8&#160;%.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En octobre, une \u00e9mission de dette souveraine suppl\u00e9mentaire de 137 milliards de dollars a \u00e9t\u00e9 approuv\u00e9e. Selon les autorit\u00e9s, les fonds seront d\u00e9di\u00e9s \u00e0 des d\u00e9penses d\u2019aide \u00e0 la reconstruction et de pr\u00e9vention des catastrophes, faisant notamment suite aux inondations qui ont touch\u00e9 le pays cet \u00e9t\u00e9. Les pertes \u00e9conomiques directes li\u00e9es \u00e0 des catastrophes naturelles s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8veraient \u00e0 42 milliards de dollars de 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au mois d\u2019octobre, Xi Jinping a par ailleurs effectu\u00e9 une visite historique \u00e0 la banque centrale chinoise, la premi\u00e8re officiellement annonc\u00e9e depuis son arriv\u00e9e au pouvoir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/zQtQj\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette politique de soutien budg\u00e9taire pourrait se poursuivre en 2024, face aux faiblesses de la reprise. Le ralentissement \u00e9conomique li\u00e9 \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie, la crise du secteur immobilier et le <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/05\/17\/le-surendettement-des-provinces-chinoises-menace-le-modele-de-croissance-du-pays\/\">surendettement des provinces<\/a> continuent de peser sur la croissance, tandis que l&rsquo;indice de confiance des consommateurs est <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/11\/24\/ce-que-le-black-friday-nous-dit-des-tendances-economiques\/\">en baisse de 11,2 points<\/a> par rapport \u00e0 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Alors que la Chine s\u2019est fix\u00e9 un objectif de croissance de 5&#160;% pour 2023, les derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions de l\u2019OCDE de novembre \u00e9valuent la croissance \u00e0 4,6&#160;% cette ann\u00e9e et 4,1&#160;% en 2024. En octobre, le FMI avait de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 revu \u00e0 la baisse ses pr\u00e9visions pour la Chine \u00e0 5&#160;% pour 2023 et 4,2&#160;% pour 2024 (contre 5,2&#160;% et 4,5&#160;% pr\u00e9vus en juillet).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/nM9R5\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Malgr\u00e9 le retour de valeur positive en septembre, la croissance annuelle des profits des entreprises du secteur industriel a diminu\u00e9 en octobre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kXJzj\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En particulier, le <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/05\/17\/le-surendettement-des-provinces-chinoises-menace-le-modele-de-croissance-du-pays\/\">surendettement des provinces<\/a> continue de faire peser un risque sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie, et fait craindre un effet de contagion et de fragilisation des institutions financi\u00e8res. Le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 un plan de 139 milliards de dollars pour le refinancement de dettes hors bilan \u2014 la dette des provinces chinoises \u00e9tant en grande partie constitu\u00e9e d\u2019une dette \u00ab&#160;cach\u00e9e&#160;\u00bb, d\u00e9tenue par des v\u00e9hicules de financement locaux (LGFV) qui ont permis de contourner les limites d\u2019endettement fix\u00e9es pour les provinces et d\u2019entreprendre des projets d\u2019investissement. La dette des LGFV s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 8 300 milliards de dollars \u00e0 fin 2022, selon les estimations de S&amp;P.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/x2mVk\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Autre signe de ralentissement, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/11\/11\/les-investisseurs-directs-etrangers-en-chine-ont-davantage-retire-de-capitaux-quils-nen-ont-investis-au-troisieme-trimestre\/\">les investissements directs \u00e9trangers<\/a> ont \u00e9galement faibli et le solde a \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9gatif pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 1998 \u2014 refl\u00e9tant une d\u00e9gradation des perspectives des investisseurs \u00e9trangers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/qbORg\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Apr\u00e8s la crise financi\u00e8re de 2008, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un programme de relance budg\u00e9taire record de 586 milliards de dollars, trois fois plus que l\u2019effort budg\u00e9taire des \u00c9tats-Unis, la Chine a retrouv\u00e9 une croissance \u00e9conomique \u00e0 deux chiffres (de 10,6&#160;%) d\u00e8s 2010. La relance avait \u00e9galement permis un endettement accru des provinces locales, ce qui constitue aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019une des premi\u00e8res menaces pour la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Alors que la strat\u00e9gie des autorit\u00e9s diff\u00e8re \u00e0 ce jour du plan de relance de 2008, le d\u00e9ploiement des mesures de soutien \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie et l\u2019\u00e9volution de leurs effets seront des tendances clefs \u00e0 suivre en 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que l\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise peine \u00e0 reprendre quatre ans apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19, l\u2019\u00e9volution de la r\u00e9ponse de l\u2019\u00c9tat qui s\u2019est dessin\u00e9e cette ann\u00e9e sera l\u2019une des tendances clefs \u00e0 suivre en 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6617,"featured_media":211256,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3654],"tags":[],"geo":[531],"class_list":["post-211251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tendances-2024","geo-chine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Quelles perspectives \u00e9conomiques pour la Chine en 2024 ?\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/12\/05\/quelles-perspectives-economiques-pour-la-chine-en-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" 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