{"id":206545,"date":"2023-10-31T15:02:59","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T14:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=206545"},"modified":"2023-10-31T15:03:24","modified_gmt":"2023-10-31T14:03:24","slug":"en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/","title":{"rendered":"En Ukraine, la perspective d\u2019un conflit gel\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Presque cinq mois apr\u00e8s le lancement de sa <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/13\/quest-ce-quune-contre-offensive\/\">contre-offensive<\/a>, les progr\u00e8s r\u00e9alis\u00e9s par Kiev sur le terrain sont loin des objectifs fix\u00e9s. La mer d\u2019Azov est toujours \u00e0 une centaine de kilom\u00e8tres de la ligne de front et les grandes villes de l\u2019oblast de Zaporijia (Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdiansk) sont solidement d\u00e9fendues par l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe. Ce constat \u00e9tabli \u2014 aussi pessimiste soit-il \u2014, il s\u2019agit de s\u2019int\u00e9resser aux causes et cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une prolongation de cet <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/02\/a-qui-beneficie-le-ralentissement-du-conflit\/#:~:text=Selon%20le%20Kiel%20Institute%2C%20les,le%2024%20janvier%2020223.\">enlisement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/5u7YR\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les causes d\u2019abord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019arm\u00e9e russe a proc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 un minage intensif du territoire ukrainen depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019invasion. On estime aujourd\u2019hui cette surface \u00e0 presque un tiers du pays, soit 200 000 km\u00b2&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-206545' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.president.gov.ua\/news\/koli-teror-rozpovzayetsya-vazhlivo-shob-svit-davav-odnoznach-86377&quot;&gt;\u041a\u043e\u043b\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0440 \u0440\u043e\u0437\u043f\u043e\u0432\u0437\u0430\u0454\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f, \u0432\u0430\u0436\u043b\u0438\u0432\u043e, \u0449\u043e\u0431 \u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442 \u0434\u0430\u0432\u0430\u0432 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0441\u0438\u0433\u043d\u0430\u043b, \u0449\u043e \u0437\u0430\u0445\u0438\u0441\u0442 \u0432\u0456\u0434 \u0442\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0443 \u043d\u0456\u0434\u0435 \u043d\u0435 \u043e\u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u043d\u0435 \u2013 \u0437\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u041f\u0440\u0435\u0437\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438&lt;\/a&gt;, Pr\u00e9sidence d\u2019Ukraine, 14 octobre 2023.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En addition, les fortifications de 2 000 kilom\u00e8tres de long b\u00e2ties par Moscou en Ukraine depuis 2022 constituent l\u2019un des syst\u00e8mes d\u00e9fensif les plus d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-206545' title='Seth G. Jones, Alexander Palmer et Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/ukraines-offensive-operations-shifting-offense-defense-balance&quot;&gt;Ukraine\u2019s Offensive Operations&amp;#160;: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance&lt;\/a&gt;, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 9 juin 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les ressources dont dispose la Russie, humaines comme mat\u00e9rielles, permettraient \u00e0 Moscou de tenir \u00ab&#160;au maximum jusqu\u2019en 2026&#160;\u00bb, selon le directeur du renseignement militaire ukrainien Kyrylo Boudanov&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-206545' title='Roman Kravets, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/articles\/2023\/10\/12\/7423740\/&quot;&gt;\u041a\u0438\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e \u0411\u0443\u0434\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432&amp;#160;: \u041c\u0438 \u0448\u0432\u0438\u0434\u043a\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0430\u0454\u043c\u043e\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043e \u0433\u043b\u043e\u0431\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0457 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Ukrayinska Pravda&lt;\/em&gt;, 12 octobre 2023.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kiev estime ainsi que l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe s\u2019effondrerait avant que sa machine militaire se retrouve en incapacit\u00e9 de mener une guerre de grande ampleur en Ukraine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L&rsquo;arm\u00e9e ukrainienne se trouve quant \u00e0 elle face \u00e0 un <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/27\/la-production-occidentale-dobus-est-toujours-largement-inferieure-a-la-consommation-ukrainienne\/\">manque de munitions<\/a> disponibles, particuli\u00e8rement d\u2019obus, qui nuit \u00e0 la mise en place d\u2019op\u00e9rations susceptibles de p\u00e9n\u00e9trer plus en profondeur le dispositif russe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/MyY1o\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les cons\u00e9quences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans un entretien au <em>Time <\/em>publi\u00e9 lundi 30 octobre, Volodymyr Zelensky se pr\u00e9sentait comme celui croyant \u00ab&#160;le plus&#160;\u00bb en une victoire ukrainienne&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-206545' title='Simon Shuster, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/time.com\/6329188\/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview\/&quot;&gt;\u2018Nobody Believes in Our Victory Like I Do.\u2019 Inside Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Time&lt;\/em&gt;, 30 octobre 2023.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019image v\u00e9hicul\u00e9e, cette d\u00e9claration traduit \u00e9galement une appr\u00e9hension \u2014 particuli\u00e8rement ressentie suite \u00e0 sa <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/09\/22\/a-washington-zelensky-sest-trouve-face-a-un-congres-plus-divise-sur-lassistance-a-lukraine-par-rapport-a-sa-derniere-visite\/\">visite \u00e0 Washington<\/a> en septembre \u2014 vis-\u00e0-vis d\u2019un essoufflement de l\u2019assistance militaire, qui est corr\u00e9l\u00e9e aux avanc\u00e9es ukrainiennes sur le terrain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si la guerre en Ukraine venait \u00e0 se transformer en un conflit gel\u00e9, ce qui n\u2019est pour le moment pas le cas, cette assistance s\u2019en trouverait directement impact\u00e9e, privant en partie Kiev de ses capacit\u00e9s \u00e0 se d\u00e9fendre contre l\u2019invasion russe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il semble que c\u2019est bien l\u2019objectif recherch\u00e9 par la Russie qui, depuis plusieurs mois, ne conduit que des offensives localis\u00e9es qui t\u00e9moignent d\u2019un manque de perspectives strat\u00e9giques.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7Dkp0\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>En d\u00e9pit d&rsquo;une temp\u00eate qui a frapp\u00e9 le territoire ukrainien la semaine derni\u00e8re, la m\u00e9t\u00e9o est toujours cl\u00e9mente sur la majeure partie du front et n\u2019impacte pas significativement les combats&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-206545' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.mev.gov.ua\/novyna\/sytuatsiya-v-enerhosystemi-na-26-zhovtnya-cherez-nehodu-obstrily-ta-tekhporushennya&quot;&gt;\u0421\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044f \u0432 \u0435\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0433\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0456 \u043d\u0430 26 \u0436\u043e\u0432\u0442\u043d\u044f&amp;#160;: \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u043d\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u0443, \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0456\u043b\u0438 \u0442\u0430 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0443\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0437\u043d\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043c\u043b\u044e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044f \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0436\u0438\u0432\u0430\u0447\u0456 \u0443 11 \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u044f\u0445, \u0435\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0433\u0456\u0457, \u044f\u043a\u0443 \u0432\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u044f\u044e\u0442\u044c \u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0441\u044c\u043a\u0456 \u0435\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0446\u0456\u0457, \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u043d\u044c\u043e \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0437\u0430\u0431\u0435\u0437\u043f\u0435\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0431 \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0436\u0438\u0432\u0430\u0447\u0456\u0432&lt;\/a&gt;, Minist\u00e8re ukrainien de l\u2019\u00c9nergie, 26 octobre 2023.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. \u00c0 Avdiivka, dans l&rsquo;oblast de Donetsk, l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe continue ses assauts men\u00e9s par ses unit\u00e9s \u00ab&#160;Storm-Z&#160;\u00bb, principalement compos\u00e9es de prisonniers&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-206545' title='Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans et Frederick W. Kagan, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-30-2023&quot;&gt;Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30, 2023&lt;\/a&gt;, Institute for the Study of War.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Les maigres avanc\u00e9es de Moscou au Nord et \u00e0 l\u2019Est de la ville se font au prix d\u2019un bilan humain et mat\u00e9riel tr\u00e8s important, tandis que les pertes \u00ab&#160;irr\u00e9cup\u00e9rables&#160;\u00bb dans ces unit\u00e9s apr\u00e8s quelques jours d\u2019op\u00e9ration sont estim\u00e9es entre 40 et 70&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-206545' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-206545' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/philologist_zov\/657&quot;&gt;Message Telegram de @\u0424\u0438\u043b\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433 \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0439 \u0437\u043e\u043d\u0435&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 octobre 2023.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La guerre en Ukraine n\u2019est pas un conflit gel\u00e9. Cependant, \u00e0 mesure que cette perspective se rapproche et en amont de l\u2019hiver qui limitera les capacit\u00e9s des deux arm\u00e9es, il convient de se pencher sur les causes de l\u2019enlisement actuel et sur les cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une prolongation de celui-ci.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":206549,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-206545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>En Ukraine, la perspective d\u2019un conflit gel\u00e9 | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"En Ukraine, la perspective d\u2019un conflit gel\u00e9 | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La guerre en Ukraine n\u2019est pas un conflit gel\u00e9. Cependant, \u00e0 mesure que cette perspective se rapproche et en amont de l\u2019hiver qui limitera les capacit\u00e9s des deux arm\u00e9es, il convient de se pencher sur les causes de l\u2019enlisement actuel et sur les cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une prolongation de celui-ci.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/10\/31\/en-ukraine-la-perspective-dun-conflit-gele\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-31T14:02:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-31T14:03:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/gc-perspective-conflit-gele-Ukraine-e1698760594838.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"813\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" 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