{"id":188684,"date":"2023-06-19T14:07:14","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T12:07:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=188684"},"modified":"2023-06-19T14:07:16","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T12:07:16","slug":"la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/","title":{"rendered":"La contre-offensive ukrainienne sera longue"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Depuis plusieurs jours, le rythme et l\u2019ampleur des op\u00e9rations offensives ukrainiennes sur la ligne de front ont diminu\u00e9 par rapport au lancement de la phase \u00ab&#160;dynamique&#160;\u00bb de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/13\/quest-ce-quune-contre-offensive\/\">la contre-offensive<\/a> il y a deux semaines. Cette baisse de l\u2019intensit\u00e9 des combats se traduit par une diminution du nombre de soldats russes tu\u00e9s en Ukraine rapport\u00e9 par le minist\u00e8re de la d\u00e9fense ukrainien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/bzxeF\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si le commandement ukrainien semble avoir interrompu certaines avanc\u00e9es au cours des derniers jours pour \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9\u00e9valuer ses tactiques&#160;\u00bb, cela ne signifie pas que la ligne de front est fig\u00e9e pour autant&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-188684' title='Daniel Michaels et Isabel Coles, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/ukraines-offensive-is-a-battle-of-readiness-e26d3825?mod=hp_lead_pos7&quot;&gt;Ukraine\u2019s Offensive Is a Battle of Readiness&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 19 juin 2023.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bien que l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne ait <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/09\/les-operations-offensives-ukrainiennes-se-multiplient\/\">subi r\u00e9cemment des pertes mat\u00e9rielles<\/a> (notamment de v\u00e9hicules blind\u00e9s occidentaux) plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es qu\u2019au cours des mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents, les chiffres rapport\u00e9s par le site <em>Oryx <\/em>t\u00e9moignent de pertes limit\u00e9es compte tenu des op\u00e9rations offensives ukrainiennes sur des positions russes fortifi\u00e9es&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-188684' title='Michel Goya, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/lavoiedelepee.wordpress.com\/?blogsub=confirming#subscribe-blog&quot;&gt;La bataille pour la premi\u00e8re position&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, La voie de l\u2019\u00e9p\u00e9e, 18 juin 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au cours de la premi\u00e8re semaine de contre-offensive \u2014 marqu\u00e9e par la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/13\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-progresse\/\">lib\u00e9ration de plusieurs villages<\/a> par l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne sur le front sud \u2014, Kiev aurait ainsi perdu 42 v\u00e9hicules de combat, notamment 7 chars d&rsquo;assaut L\u00e9opard 2 (dont 3 2R utilis\u00e9s pour d\u00e9blayer les mines) et 16 Bradley am\u00e9ricains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des op\u00e9rations ukrainiennes et russes continuent d\u2019avoir lieu sur la ligne de front comme \u00e0 Avdiivka, au nord de Donetsk, o\u00f9 l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne aurait progress\u00e9 de plus d\u2019un kilom\u00e8tre au cours des deux derni\u00e8re semaines, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re entre l\u2019oblast de Donetsk et de Zaporijia. Dans la matin\u00e9e du 19 juin, la vice-ministre de la D\u00e9fense d\u2019Ukraine, Hanna Maliar a annonc\u00e9 que les forces ukrainiennes avaient captur\u00e9 le village de Piatykhatky, au sud-ouest d\u2019Orikhiv&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-188684' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/annamaliar\/858&quot;&gt;Message Telegram d\u2019Hanna Maliar&lt;\/a&gt;, 19 juin 2023.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ksfkD\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 ces quelques avanc\u00e9es localis\u00e9es, les op\u00e9rations de contre-offensives ukrainiennes semblent en effet \u00eatre momentan\u00e9ment en pause sur plusieurs secteurs du front du sud et de l\u2019est du pays. Vendredi 16 juin, le chef du centre de renseignement des forces de d\u00e9fense estoniennes, Margo Grosberg, d\u00e9clarait lors d\u2019une conf\u00e9rence de presse que l\u2019approche \u00ab&#160;prudente&#160;\u00bb favoris\u00e9e par l\u2019\u00e9tat-major ukrainien \u00e9tait \u00ab&#160;tout \u00e0 fait logique d\u2019un point de vue militaire&#160;\u00bb, compte tenu du rapport de force quasiment \u00e9gal ainsi que de la densit\u00e9 du r\u00e9seau de fortifications construit par l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe au cours des 9 derniers mois&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-188684' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/news.err.ee\/1609010342\/intelligence-chief-we-won-t-see-ukraine-counter-offensive-in-the-next-week&quot;&gt;Intelligence chief&amp;#160;: We won&amp;rsquo;t see Ukraine counter-offensive in the next week&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;ERR&lt;\/em&gt;, 17 juin 2023.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3n0Ba\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>De plus, comme le note l\u2019Institute for the Study of War, \u00ab&#160;les pauses op\u00e9rationnelles sont une caract\u00e9ristique commune des grandes offensives, et cette pause ne signifie pas la fin de la contre-offensive de l&rsquo;Ukraine&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-188684' title='Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov et Mason Clark, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2023&quot;&gt;Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023&lt;\/a&gt;, Institute for the Study of War.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Le ralentissement des op\u00e9rations terrestres offensives ne signifie pas pour autant que les frappes ukrainiennes dans la profondeur ont cess\u00e9, comme l\u2019illustre la destruction dimanche 18 juin par l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne d\u2019un d\u00e9p\u00f4t de munitions russe situ\u00e9 \u00e0 115 kilom\u00e8tres de la ligne de front, dans le village de Ryhove&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-188684' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/mil.in.ua\/en\/news\/ukrainian-armed-forces-struck-an-ammunition-depot-in-the-village-of-rykove\/&quot;&gt;Ukrainian Armed Forces struck an ammunition depot in the village of Rykove&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;Militarnyi&lt;\/em&gt;, 18 juin 2023.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZUV3s\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Afin d\u2019esp\u00e9rer percer le dispositif d\u00e9fensif russe, l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne a jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 maintenant conduit des attaques localis\u00e9es pour \u00ab&#160;tester&#160;\u00bb les r\u00e9ponses de l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Comme le montre la carte ci-dessus, les lignes de d\u00e9fense russes sont structur\u00e9es en plusieurs couches sur une partie importante de la ligne du front sud.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La difficult\u00e9 de percer cette ligne pour les forces ukrainiennes se traduit par plusieurs points&#160;: une absence de sup\u00e9riorit\u00e9 a\u00e9rienne permettant de couvrir ses avanc\u00e9es, un rapport de forces num\u00e9rique quasiment \u00e9gal ainsi qu\u2019une puissance d&rsquo;artillerie moindre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00c0 ces difficult\u00e9s viennent s\u2019ajouter un \u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u00e9fensif russe jusqu\u2019alors sous-estim\u00e9&#160;: les champs de mines, ralentissant la progression de l\u2019infanterie et des v\u00e9hicules&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-188684' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/06\/19\/la-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-sera-longue\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-188684' title='Marcus Walker, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/mines-everywhere-ukraines-offensive-is-proving-a-hard-slog-270a1e4a?mod=article_inline&quot;&gt;\u2018Mines Everywhere\u2019&amp;#160;: Ukraine\u2019s Offensive Is Proving a Hard Slog&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 16 juin 2023.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le lancement de la phase \u00ab&#160;&#160;dynamique&#160;&#160;\u00bb de la contre-offensive ukrainienne doit \u00eatre compris comme une des s\u00e9quences constitutive d\u2019une phase qui pourrait durer plusieurs mois, \u00e0 mesure que l\u2019\u00e9tat-major ukrainien cherche \u00e0 percer les lignes de d\u00e9fense russes tout en limitant les pertes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":188690,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-188684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","geo-europe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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