{"id":185260,"date":"2023-05-15T15:25:51","date_gmt":"2023-05-15T13:25:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=185260"},"modified":"2023-05-15T17:35:10","modified_gmt":"2023-05-15T15:35:10","slug":"la-commission-europeenne-revoit-ses-previsions-economiques-a-la-hausse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/05\/15\/la-commission-europeenne-revoit-ses-previsions-economiques-a-la-hausse\/","title":{"rendered":"La Commission europ\u00e9enne revoit ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 la hausse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon la Communaut\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne, la baisse des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, l&rsquo;att\u00e9nuation des contraintes d&rsquo;approvisionnement et la solidit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 du travail ont soutenu une croissance mod\u00e9r\u00e9e au premier trimestre 2023, dissipant les craintes d&rsquo;une r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les perspectives de croissance de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie de l&rsquo;Union sont pass\u00e9es \u00e0 1,0&#160;% en 2023 (compar\u00e9 \u00e0 0,8&#160;% dans les pr\u00e9visions interm\u00e9diaires de l&rsquo;hiver) et \u00e0 1,7&#160;% en 2024 (contre 1,6&#160;% en f\u00e9vrier). Les r\u00e9visions pour la zone euro sont d&rsquo;une ampleur similaire, la croissance du PIB \u00e9tant d\u00e9sormais attendue \u00e0 1,1&#160;% et 1,6&#160;% en 2023 et 2024 respectivement.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/OhZB8\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>L&rsquo;inflation globale a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser au premier trimestre 2023, en raison d&rsquo;une forte d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie. L&rsquo;inflation de base (inflation globale hors \u00e9nergie et denr\u00e9es alimentaires non transform\u00e9es) persiste n\u00e9anmoins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En mars, l\u2019inflation de base a atteint un sommet historique de 7,6&#160;%, mais elle devrait diminuer progressivement au cours de 2023, les marges b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires absorbant les pressions salariales plus fortes et les conditions de financement se resserrant.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sur une base annuelle, l&rsquo;inflation de base dans la zone euro en 2023 devrait s&rsquo;\u00e9tablir en moyenne \u00e0 6,1&#160;%, avant de baisser \u00e0 3,2&#160;% en 2024, tout en restant sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 l&rsquo;inflation globale au cours des deux ann\u00e9es de pr\u00e9vision (5,8&#160;% en 2023 et 2,8&#160;% en 2024).&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/VAN7k\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les derni\u00e8res estimations laissent aussi voir un renforcement du march\u00e9 du travail&#160;; le taux de ch\u00f4mage de l&rsquo;Union est descendu \u00e0 6,0&#160;% en mars 2023, et les taux d&rsquo;activit\u00e9 et d&#8217;emploi sont \u00e0 des niveaux record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La croissance de l&#8217;emploi devrait s&rsquo;\u00e9tablir \u00e0 0,5&#160;% cette ann\u00e9e, avant de redescendre \u00e0 0,4&#160;% en 2024. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage devrait rester l\u00e9g\u00e8rement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 6&#160;%&#160;; la croissance des salaires, elle, s&rsquo;est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e depuis le d\u00e9but de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2022, mais est rest\u00e9e jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent bien en de\u00e7\u00e0 de l&rsquo;inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des augmentations salariales plus soutenues sont ainsi attendues en raison de la persistance d\u2019un march\u00e9 du travail bloqu\u00e9, des fortes augmentations des salaires minimums dans plusieurs pays et, plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, de la pression exerc\u00e9e par les travailleurs concernant le pouvoir d&rsquo;achat.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 l&rsquo;introduction de mesures de soutien visant \u00e0 att\u00e9nuer l&rsquo;impact des prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, la forte croissance nominale et la suppression des mesures r\u00e9siduelles li\u00e9es \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie ont conduit le d\u00e9ficit public agr\u00e9g\u00e9 de l&rsquo;Union en 2022 \u00e0 se r\u00e9duire encore pour atteindre 3,4&#160;% du PIB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En 2023, et de mani\u00e8re plus marqu\u00e9e en 2024, la baisse des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie devrait permettre aux gouvernements de supprimer progressivement les mesures de soutien \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, entra\u00eenant de nouvelles r\u00e9ductions du d\u00e9ficit \u2014 \u00e0 3,1&#160;% et 2,4&#160;% du PIB respectivement.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le ratio agr\u00e9g\u00e9 de la dette au PIB de l&rsquo;Union devrait diminuer r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement pour passer sous la barre des 83&#160;% en 2024 (90&#160;% dans la zone euro), ce qui reste sup\u00e9rieur aux niveaux ant\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie \u2013 les trajectoires budg\u00e9taires sont cependant tr\u00e8s h\u00e9t\u00e9rog\u00e8nes d&rsquo;un \u00c9tat membre \u00e0 l&rsquo;autre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si l&rsquo;inflation pourrait soutenir l&rsquo;am\u00e9lioration des finances publiques \u00e0 court terme, cet effet est appel\u00e9 \u00e0 se dissiper au fil du temps, \u00e0 mesure que les co\u00fbts de remboursement de la dette augmentent et que les d\u00e9penses publiques s&rsquo;adaptent progressivement au niveau de prix plus \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Au cours du premier trimestre 2023, le PIB de l&rsquo;Union europ\u00e9enne a augment\u00e9 de 0,3&#160;% et celui de la zone euro de 0,1&#160;%&#160;; les indicateurs \u00e9conomiques sugg\u00e8rent une poursuite de la croissance lors des deux ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":185261,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-185260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":185261,"excerpt":"Au cours du premier trimestre 2023, le PIB de l'Union europ\u00e9enne a augment\u00e9 de 0,3% et celui de la zone euro de 0,1% ; les indicateurs \u00e9conomiques sugg\u00e8rent une poursuite de la croissance lors des deux ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La Commission europ\u00e9enne revoit ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 la hausse | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/05\/15\/la-commission-europeenne-revoit-ses-previsions-economiques-a-la-hausse\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La Commission europ\u00e9enne revoit ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 la hausse | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Au cours du premier trimestre 2023, le PIB de l&#039;Union 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