{"id":177732,"date":"2023-02-16T14:49:01","date_gmt":"2023-02-16T13:49:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=177732"},"modified":"2023-02-16T14:52:33","modified_gmt":"2023-02-16T13:52:33","slug":"le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Covid aurait caus\u00e9 la mort d\u20191,5 million de personnes en Chine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le 25 d\u00e9cembre 2022, la Commission nationale de la sant\u00e9 chinoise a mis fin \u00e0 ses publications quotidiennes recensant le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s au Covid. De d\u00e9cembre jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/06\/la-chine-cette-semaine-en-10-points-16\/\">r\u00e9ouverture des fronti\u00e8res chinoises<\/a> le 8 janvier 2023 \u2014 puis <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/05\/la-chine-cette-semaine-en-10-points-19\/\">avec Macao et Hong Kong<\/a> d\u00e9but f\u00e9vrier \u2014, P\u00e9kin a progressivement mis fin \u00e0 sa politique de \u00ab&#160;<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/12\/07\/vers-la-fin-du-zero-covid-en-chine\/\">z\u00e9ro-Covid<\/a>&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/cdn.knightlab.com\/libs\/timeline3\/latest\/embed\/index.html?source=1jNqrhQe0ZHL7fRo4jQ5aRvuoDZAZHsFnUTsLtPZlfzw&amp;font=Default&amp;lang=en&amp;initial_zoom=2&amp;height=650\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>P\u00e9kin continue de recenser tr\u00e8s peu de d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s au Covid&#160;: 83 150 au 9 f\u00e9vrier, et ce malgr\u00e9 plusieurs d\u00e9clarations de hauts responsables du Parti qui font douter de la v\u00e9racit\u00e9 de ces chiffres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sur la p\u00e9riode du 1er au 20 d\u00e9cembre, selon le proc\u00e8s-verbal d\u2019une r\u00e9union \u00e0 huis clos de la Commission nationale de la sant\u00e9 chinoise du 21 d\u00e9cembre, le nombre cumul\u00e9 d\u2019infections en Chine aurait atteint 248 millions de cas, soit 17,56&#160;% de la population totale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fin janvier, Wu Zunyou, l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9miologiste en chef du Centre chinois de contr\u00f4le et de pr\u00e9vention des maladies, avait d\u00e9clar\u00e9 sur Weibo que la \u00ab&#160;<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/29\/la-chine-en-10-points-cette-semaine-2\/\"> vague d\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie actuelle avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 infect\u00e9 environ 80&#160;% de la population<\/a>&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kRfWi\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Quatre mod\u00e8les statistiques r\u00e9alis\u00e9s par des \u00e9quipes de chercheurs associ\u00e9s \u00e0 des universit\u00e9s occidentales et chinoises convergent vers des estimations similaires, toutes largement sup\u00e9rieures au bilan officiel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Des calculs reposant sur les donn\u00e9es de l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Shanghai (f\u00e9vrier jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ao\u00fbt 2022) permettent d\u2019estimer que le virus aurait provoqu\u00e9 la mort d\u20191,6 millions de personnes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale. Cette mod\u00e9lisation repose sur plusieurs hypoth\u00e8ses portant sur le nombre de lits d&rsquo;unit\u00e9s de soins intensifs disponibles, la disponibilit\u00e9 de vaccins suppl\u00e9mentaires ou bien la distribution de traitements&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-177732' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-177732' title='Cai, J., Deng, X., Yang, J. et al., \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-022-01855-7&quot;&gt;Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb,&lt;em&gt; Nat Med,&lt;\/em&gt; 28, 1468\u20131475 (2022).'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plus r\u00e9cemment, des chercheurs de l\u2019universit\u00e9 de Hong Kong ont publi\u00e9 une \u00e9tude estimant que le bilan se situerait entre 800 000 et 1,1 millions en comparant les d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s au coronavirus par groupe d\u2019\u00e2ges dans d\u2019autres pays. Leur mod\u00e9lisation prend \u00e9galement en compte l\u2019amplification de la propagation du virus li\u00e9e aux d\u00e9placements de la p\u00e9riode du Nouvel An chinois, qui pourrait avoir conduit \u00e0 la mort de 970 000 personnes&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-177732' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-177732' title='Kathy Leung, Gabriel M. Leung et Joseph T. Wu, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2022.12.14.22283460v1.full.pdf&quot;&gt;Modeling the adjustment of COVID-19 response and exit from dynamic zero-COVID in China&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;MedRxiv&lt;\/em&gt;, 14 d\u00e9cembre 2022.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YsT85\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9tude des chiffres de contaminations permet, en int\u00e9grant le pic de l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, les taux de mortalit\u00e9 estim\u00e9s ainsi que l&rsquo;effet des vaccinations, d\u2019arriver \u00e0 un bilan situ\u00e9 entre 1,2 et 1,7 millions de d\u00e9c\u00e8s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le dernier mod\u00e8le part du taux de mortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9 au Covid aux \u00c9tats-Unis (0,15&#160;%, soit 1 personne sur 650). En prenant en compte une estimation \u2014 plut\u00f4t conservatrice \u2014 consid\u00e9rant que 40 \u00e0 65&#160;% de la population chinoise aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 infect\u00e9e, le Covid pourrait avoir caus\u00e9 la mort de 900 000 \u00e0 1,4 million d\u2019individus en Chine&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-177732' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-177732' title='James Glanz, Mara Hvistendahl et Agnes Chang, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/02\/15\/world\/asia\/china-covid-death-estimates.html&quot;&gt;How Deadly Was China\u2019s Covid Wave&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times, &lt;\/em&gt;15 f\u00e9vrier 2023.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les chiffres officiels du gouvernement donnent \u00e0 la Chine un faible taux de mortalit\u00e9 par habitant (6 d\u00e9c\u00e8s pour 100 000 personnes), tr\u00e8s loin derri\u00e8re la plupart des pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s. La fourchette haute reposant sur les estimations ci-dessus indique que le taux de mortalit\u00e9 chinois serait en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de 110 d\u00e9c\u00e8s pour 100 000 habitants, soit bien plus que Ta\u00efwan (70), la Cor\u00e9e du Sud (65), le Japon (55) ou Singapour (30).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/5qenm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Depuis d\u00e9cembre, la strat\u00e9gie de P\u00e9kin consiste \u00e0 ne pas communiquer de chiffres et \u00e0 multiplier les d\u00e9clarations rassurantes de personnalit\u00e9s publiques sur les r\u00e9seaux sociaux. Hu Xijin, r\u00e9dacteur en chef du <em>Global Times <\/em>\u2014 journal contr\u00f4l\u00e9 par le Parti \u2014, a notamment d\u00e9clar\u00e9 fin janvier sur son Weibo (suivi par 25 millions de personnes) que \u00ab&#160;le virus est parti\u2026 Dieu b\u00e9nisse la Chine&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-177732' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-177732' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/weibo.com\/huxijin&quot;&gt;Fil Weibo de Hu Xijin&lt;\/a&gt;.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Ces prises de parole contribuent \u00e0 la relativisation par l\u2019opinion publique des cons\u00e9quences r\u00e9elles de la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plusieurs mod\u00e8les de calcul reposant sur des donn\u00e9es locales ou des comparaisons internationales indiquent que le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s au Covid en Chine se trouverait entre 1 et 1,5 million. Ces chiffres sont largement sup\u00e9rieurs aux donn\u00e9es officielles chinoises, qui ont recens\u00e9 83 150 morts du Covid au 9 f\u00e9vrier 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":177768,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2210],"tags":[],"geo":[531],"class_list":["post-177732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sante-publique","geo-chine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le Covid aurait caus\u00e9 la mort d\u20191,5 million de personnes en Chine | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le Covid aurait caus\u00e9 la mort d\u20191,5 million de personnes en Chine | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Plusieurs mod\u00e8les de calcul reposant sur des donn\u00e9es locales ou des comparaisons internationales indiquent que le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s au Covid en Chine se trouverait entre 1 et 1,5 million. Ces chiffres sont largement sup\u00e9rieurs aux donn\u00e9es officielles chinoises, qui ont recens\u00e9 83 150 morts du Covid au 9 f\u00e9vrier 2023.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/02\/16\/le-covid-aurait-cause-la-mort-d15-million-de-personnes-en-chine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-16T13:49:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-16T13:52:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/gc-covid-chine-1.5-millions-de-morts-e1676551622792.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"814\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" 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