{"id":175839,"date":"2023-01-31T11:37:11","date_gmt":"2023-01-31T10:37:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=175839"},"modified":"2023-01-31T11:37:12","modified_gmt":"2023-01-31T10:37:12","slug":"les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/31\/les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi\/","title":{"rendered":"Les nouvelles projections de croissance du FMI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>En octobre, le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international (FMI) pr\u00e9voyait <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/10\/11\/litalie-et-lallemagne-vont-entrer-en-recession-en-2023-selon-le-fmi\/\">l\u2019entr\u00e9e en r\u00e9cession de l\u2019Allemagne et de l\u2019Italie<\/a>, les \u00c9tats europ\u00e9ens les plus expos\u00e9s \u00e0 la baisse des baisse des approvisionnements russes en hydrocarbures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les temp\u00e9ratures hivernales \u00e9lev\u00e9es en Europe ont contrecarr\u00e9 ce sc\u00e9nario. Au 29 janvier, les r\u00e9serves de gaz allemandes \u00e9taient remplies \u00e0 79,82&#160;%, soit bien au-dessus de la moyenne des ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La situation est similaire en Italie, avec un remplissage \u00e0 72,19&#160;% au 29 janvier.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/11948271\/embed\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>La mise \u00e0 jour de ces pr\u00e9visions offre une perspective plus optimiste de la croissance europ\u00e9enne pour 2023. Le PIB allemand devrait ainsi cro\u00eetre de 0,1&#160;% en 2023, 0,6&#160;% pour l&rsquo;Italie, 0,7&#160;% pour la France et 1,1&#160;% pour l\u2019Espagne. La moyenne pour la zone euro et l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne se situent toutes deux \u00e0 0,7&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-175839' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/31\/les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-175839' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2023\/01\/31\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023&quot;&gt;Global inflation will fall in 2023 and 2024 amid subpar economic growth&lt;\/a&gt;, Fonds mon\u00e9taire international, 31 janvier 2023.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/lrgX6\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La r\u00e9ouverture de la Chine d\u00e9but 2023 a conduit le FMI \u00e0 revoir ses perspectives de croissance \u00e0 5,2&#160;% pour cette ann\u00e9e, soit 0,8 points de plus que lors des derni\u00e8res projections d\u2019octobre. La fin de la politique z\u00e9ro-Covid pr\u00e9sente toutefois un risque important de perturbations en raison de possibles futures vagues massives d\u2019infections, comme illustr\u00e9 par un ralentissement de la croissance chinoise au quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/swjI1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le secteur immobilier chinois est encore fragile suite aux d\u00e9fauts de paiements du <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/09\/20\/evergrande-pourquoi-le-moment-lehman-brothers-de-la-chine-affole-le-reste-du-monde\/\">g\u00e9ant immobilier Evergrande<\/a> \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2021.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les investissements dans l\u2019immobilier ont continu\u00e9 \u00e0 se contracter depuis, tandis que les livraisons de nombreux logements pr\u00e9-vendus par les promoteurs chinois n&rsquo;ont pas pu \u00eatre honor\u00e9es. En juillet 2022, seulement 60&#160;% des logements pr\u00e9vendus entre 2013 et 2020 ont pu \u00eatre livr\u00e9s, selon Nomura International&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-175839' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/31\/les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-175839' title='Enda Curran, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/how-chinas-property-developers-got-into-such-a-mess\/2022\/12\/14\/1743c080-7b86-11ed-bb97-f47d47466b9a_story.html&quot;&gt;How China\u2019s Property Developers Got Into Such a Mess&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Washington Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 15 d\u00e9cembre 2022.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/WexNr\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Parmi les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, seul le Royaume-Uni fait exception et devrait conna\u00eetre une r\u00e9cession en 2023. Selon l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef du FMI, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Londres pourrait s\u2019attendre \u00e0 une \u00ab&#160;forte correction&#160;\u00bb cette ann\u00e9e en raison de l\u2019augmentation cumul\u00e9e des imp\u00f4ts, des pr\u00eats hypoth\u00e9caires et des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie qui p\u00e8sent lourdement sur les d\u00e9penses des m\u00e9nages britanniques&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-175839' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/31\/les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-175839' title='Chris Giles et Colby Smith, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e44a1de1-a700-4384-8844-f26982d5c05c&quot;&gt;IMF forecasts UK recession despite other leading economies growing&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 31 janvier 2023.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/W1E2z\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019Inde devrait \u00eatre le pays qui conna\u00eetra la plus forte croissance cette ann\u00e9e et en 2024, contribuant aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de la Chine \u00e0 la moiti\u00e9 de la croissance globale en termes de PIB. <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/30\/le-modele-de-reussite-economique-indien-fragilise-par-les-revelations-sur-le-groupe-adani\/\">La perte massive de capitalisation boursi\u00e8re des filiales d\u2019Adani<\/a> depuis la semaine derni\u00e8re pourrait toutefois compromettre, \u00e0 terme, les pr\u00e9visions de croissance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le 31 janvier, le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international a mis \u00e0 jour ses perspectives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. Si la baisse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e9loigne le risque d\u2019une r\u00e9cession mondiale, la croissance chinoise reste en partie conditionn\u00e9e par l\u2019\u00e9tat de son secteur immobilier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":175838,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-175839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","geo-monde"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les nouvelles projections de croissance du FMI | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/31\/les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les nouvelles projections de croissance du FMI | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le 31 janvier, le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international a mis \u00e0 jour ses perspectives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. Si la baisse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e9loigne le risque d\u2019une r\u00e9cession mondiale, la croissance chinoise reste en partie conditionn\u00e9e par l\u2019\u00e9tat de son secteur immobilier.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/01\/31\/les-nouvelles-projections-de-croissance-du-fmi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-31T10:37:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-01-31T10:37:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/01\/gc-croissance-FMI-janvier-2023-e1675161279214.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"811\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" 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