{"id":160399,"date":"2022-09-26T20:39:49","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T18:39:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=160399"},"modified":"2022-09-27T18:18:26","modified_gmt":"2022-09-27T16:18:26","slug":"en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/","title":{"rendered":"En prenant en compte les d\u00e9c\u00e8s exc\u00e9dentaires, le bilan du Covid-19 s&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 22 millions de morts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul>\n<li>Un mod\u00e8le de <em>machine learning<\/em> r\u00e9cemment d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par <em>The Economist<\/em> a observ\u00e9 la surmortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9e au Covid-19 chaque jour depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie. Cette mod\u00e9lisation a permis de r\u00e9v\u00e9ler que le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s provoqu\u00e9s par le Covid-19 depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie serait bien sup\u00e9rieur au chiffre officiel de 6,5 millions. En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, le bilan pourrait \u00eatre 3,4 fois sup\u00e9rieur, soit 22,3 millions de d\u00e9c\u00e8s&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-160399' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-160399' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates&quot;&gt;The pandemic\u2019s true death toll&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Economist&lt;\/em&gt;, 21 septembre 2022.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3mNo5\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>La surmortalit\u00e9 correspond au nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s observ\u00e9s dans une p\u00e9riode de crise \u2014 ici une pand\u00e9mie, mais cette m\u00e9thode peut \u00e9galement s\u2019appliquer pour mesurer les cons\u00e9quences li\u00e9es \u00e0 une catastrophe naturelle \u2014 par rapport \u00e0 des conditions normales. Ainsi, cette m\u00e9thode permet de prendre en compte les personnes d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9es en raison des cons\u00e9quences du Covid-19, ou bien celles qui seraient d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9es sans avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9es puis d\u00e9clar\u00e9es comme atteintes de la maladie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-large  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/VUZd6\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Dans un rapport publi\u00e9 en mai dernier, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/05\/06\/un-rapport-de-loms-evalue-au-double-le-nombre-de-morts-du-covid-19-annonce-par-les-pays-entre-2020-et-2021\/\">l\u2019Organisation mondiale de la Sant\u00e9 (OMS) avait \u00e9valu\u00e9 au double le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s au Covid-19<\/a> entre 2019 et 2020, indiquant que le bilan s\u2019\u00e9levait alors \u00e0 15 millions de personnes. Ces nouvelles donn\u00e9es viennent confirmer la pertinence de la prise en compte de la surmortalit\u00e9 plut\u00f4t que la stricte \u00e9tude des chiffres officiels communiqu\u00e9s par les pays.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/tWiin\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Ces donn\u00e9es indiquent ainsi que le Covid-19 a entra\u00een\u00e9 bien plus de morts que ne le sugg\u00e8rent les statistiques officielles. Les r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es restent les m\u00eames, mais le bilan est consid\u00e9rablement alourdi. L\u2019Asie aurait ainsi connu entre 2,4 et 7,1 millions de d\u00e9c\u00e8s suppl\u00e9mentaires (contre 0.6 annonc\u00e9s officiellement), et l\u2019Am\u00e9rique latine entre 1,5 et 1,8 millions (contre 0.6).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-large  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/0tkLu\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>L\u2019application de cette m\u00e9thode de comptabilisation pour la Russie ou l\u2019Inde sugg\u00e8re \u00e0 l\u2019inverse que ces deux pays auraient \u00e9t\u00e9 bien plus touch\u00e9s par la pand\u00e9mie que ne le refl\u00e8tent les chiffres officiels. L\u2019absence de donn\u00e9es ou les retards de publication pour la Chine ne permettent cependant pas de saisir le r\u00e9el impact qu\u2019aurait eu \u2014 et a toujours \u2014 le Covid-19 sur la population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon les chiffres officiels publi\u00e9s par les pays, 6.5 millions de personnes dans le monde seraient d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9es en raison du Covid-19. Cependant, cette m\u00e9thode de comptabilisation ne prend en compte que les personnes ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9es positives. En se concentrant sur les d\u00e9c\u00e8s exc\u00e9dentaires, qui permettent de suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution de la surmortalit\u00e9, ce chiffre passe \u00e0 22 millions entre janvier 2020 et septembre 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":160401,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2210],"tags":[],"geo":[2163],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>En prenant en compte les d\u00e9c\u00e8s exc\u00e9dentaires, le bilan du Covid-19 s&#039;\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 22 millions de morts | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"En prenant en compte les d\u00e9c\u00e8s exc\u00e9dentaires, le bilan du Covid-19 s&#039;\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 22 millions de morts | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon les chiffres officiels publi\u00e9s par les pays, 6.5 millions de personnes dans le monde seraient d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9es en raison du Covid-19. 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En se concentrant sur les d\u00e9c\u00e8s exc\u00e9dentaires, qui permettent de suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution de la surmortalit\u00e9, ce chiffre passe \u00e0 22 millions entre janvier 2020 et septembre 2022.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-09-26T18:39:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-09-27T16:18:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Surmortalite-Covid_GC.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1103\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/Surmortalite-Covid_GC.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/\",\"name\":\"En prenant en compte les d\u00e9c\u00e8s exc\u00e9dentaires, le bilan du Covid-19 s'\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 22 millions de morts | Le Grand Continent\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/SIPA_SIPAUSA30323487_000001-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-09-26T18:39:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-09-27T16:18:26+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/e4f85f52220fc7b4cc3cfdb86d88e833\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/09\/26\/en-prenant-en-compte-les-deces-excedentaires-le-bilan-du-covid-19-seleverait-a-22-millions-de-morts\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/SIPA_SIPAUSA30323487_000001-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/09\/SIPA_SIPAUSA30323487_000001-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1682,\"caption\":\"BIJIE, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 18, 2022 - Firefighters disinfect a street in Bijie, Guizhou Province, China, Sept 18, 2022. 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