{"id":155411,"date":"2022-08-25T16:37:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T14:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=155411"},"modified":"2022-08-25T16:41:32","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T14:41:32","slug":"la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/","title":{"rendered":"La population mondiale pourrait diminuer de moiti\u00e9 d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul><li>Deux indicateurs-clefs permettent d\u2019anticiper des changements de tendances d\u00e9mographiques&#160;: le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 et le taux de mortalit\u00e9. Dans <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/07\/12\/la-demographie-mondiale-est-en-train-de-changer\/\">son rapport publi\u00e9 en juillet<\/a>, le D\u00e9partement des Affaires \u00e9conomiques et sociales de l\u2019ONU pr\u00e9voyait qu\u2019apr\u00e8s \u00eatre pass\u00e9 de 5 naissances par femme en moyenne en 1950 \u00e0 2,3 en 2021, le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 devrait se stabiliser \u00e0 2,1 enfants par femme d\u2019ici 2050.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/13z58\/2\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Cependant, la baisse actuelle du taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 laisse penser que le pic de la population mondiale pourrait \u00eatre atteint aux alentours de 2043, et non en 2086 comme l\u2019estime l\u2019ONU. C\u2019est la th\u00e8se que d\u00e9fend l\u2019\u00e9conomiste de chez HSBC James Pomeroy, dans une \u00e9tude rendue publique cette semaine&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-155411' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-155411' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.research.hsbc.com\/C\/1\/1\/320\/cjGpNND&quot;&gt;Global Demographics, How soon will the world\u2019s population be shrinking&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;, HSBC Global Research, 12 juillet 2022.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3K9Af\/5\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Dans son rapport, les Nations unies estimaient que \u00ab&#160;dans les pays \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9, les vagues successives de la pand\u00e9mie ont pu g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des fluctuations \u00e0 court terme du nombre de grossesses et de naissances&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-155411' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-155411' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/pd\/sites\/www.un.org.development.desa.pd\/files\/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf&quot;&gt;World population prospects&lt;\/a&gt;, Nations unies, 11 juillet 2022.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Toutefois, Pomeroy estime que les changements li\u00e9s au Covid sont en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 plus profonds, et argue que \u00ab&#160;la pand\u00e9mie a probablement renforc\u00e9 bon nombre des raisons de la baisse des taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9, telles que les changements sociaux dans les attitudes \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9gard des familles nombreuses et les co\u00fbts associ\u00e9s&#160;\u00bb.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Ce sc\u00e9nario hypoth\u00e9tique s\u2019appuie sur l\u2019exemple fourni par plusieurs pays \u00e0 revenus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, comme la Cor\u00e9e du Sud ou le Japon. Dans les ann\u00e9es 1970, le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 cor\u00e9en \u00e9tait sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 6, puis a drastiquement chut\u00e9 au cours des d\u00e9cennies qui ont suivi pour finalement s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 0,87 en 2022, selon les estimations actuelles.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZUFhy\/1\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Les effets du Covid sur les taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 ne pourront s\u2019observer qu\u2019au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es, et restent pour le moment de l\u2019ordre du th\u00e9orique. Il est toutefois fortement probable \u00e0 ce stade d\u2019estimer que les populations d\u2019Europe, d\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Nord et latine ainsi que de l\u2019Asie de l\u2019Est et du Sud-Est vont commencer \u00e0 d\u00e9cro\u00eetre au cours de la prochaine d\u00e9cennie.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/OMvfp\/5\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Ces donn\u00e9es d\u00e9mographiques sont cruciales pour l\u2019\u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 court et moyen terme. En Europe, le d\u00e9clin des populations de l\u2019Allemagne et de l\u2019Italie constituent un important d\u00e9fi pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie de ces pays, mais \u00e9galement pour l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/58IYE\/1\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Toutefois, ces estimations sont \u00e0 compl\u00e9ter avec l\u2019impact que provoque le changement climatique sur les migrations internationales, qui vont consid\u00e9rablement augmenter dans les prochaines ann\u00e9es et d\u00e9cennies. En 2020, 281 millions de personnes dans le monde vivaient dans un pays diff\u00e9rent de leur pays de naissance \u2014 un chiffre en augmentation de 128 millions par rapport \u00e0 1990&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-155411' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-155411' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/worldmigrationreport.iom.int\/wmr-2022-interactive\/&quot;&gt;World Migration Report 2022&lt;\/a&gt;, Organisation internationale pour les migrations.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Cependant, selon les chercheurs H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Benveniste, Michael Oppenheimer et Marc Fleurbaey, l\u2019accroissement des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle globale va <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/07\/26\/le-changement-climatique-va-reduire-les-capacites-des-plus-pauvres-a-migrer-a-linternational\/\">nuire aux capacit\u00e9s des classes les plus d\u00e9munies \u00e0 migrer \u00e0 l\u2019international<\/a>&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-155411' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-155411' title='Benveniste, H., Oppenheimer, M. et Fleurbaey, M., \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01401-w#citeas&quot;&gt;Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Nature Climate Change&lt;\/em&gt;, 12, 634\u2013641 (2022).'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le mois dernier, le rapport d\u00e9mographique des Nations unies anticipait une hausse de la population mondiale qui atteindrait 10 milliards \u00e0 la fin du si\u00e8cle. Cependant, le d\u00e9clin global du taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 laisse penser que ce sc\u00e9nario devrait \u00eatre consid\u00e9rablement revu \u00e0 la baisse, conduisant \u00e0 une diminution de moiti\u00e9 de la population actuelle d\u2019ici 2100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":155428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1926],"tags":[],"geo":[2163],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La population mondiale pourrait diminuer de moiti\u00e9 d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La population mondiale pourrait diminuer de moiti\u00e9 d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le mois dernier, le rapport d\u00e9mographique des Nations unies anticipait une hausse de la population mondiale qui atteindrait 10 milliards \u00e0 la fin du si\u00e8cle. Cependant, le d\u00e9clin global du taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 laisse penser que ce sc\u00e9nario devrait \u00eatre consid\u00e9rablement revu \u00e0 la baisse, conduisant \u00e0 une diminution de moiti\u00e9 de la population actuelle d\u2019ici 2100.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/08\/25\/la-population-mondiale-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-la-fin-du-siecle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-08-25T14:37:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-08-25T14:41:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Demographie.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"693\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta 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