{"id":137554,"date":"2022-04-24T17:52:25","date_gmt":"2022-04-24T15:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=137554"},"modified":"2022-04-24T17:53:58","modified_gmt":"2022-04-24T15:53:58","slug":"second-tour-de-la-presidentielle-pas-de-front-republicain-a-midi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2022\/04\/24\/second-tour-de-la-presidentielle-pas-de-front-republicain-a-midi\/","title":{"rendered":"Second tour de la pr\u00e9sidentielle&#160;: pas de \u00ab&#160;front r\u00e9publicain&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 midi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Dans cet article, nous observons l&rsquo;effet du score de Marine Le Pen et d&rsquo;Emmanuel Macron ainsi que des autres choix au premier tour (autre candidat ou abstention) sur l&rsquo;\u00e9volution de la participation \u00e0 midi entre le premier et le second tour. Cela permet d&rsquo;estimer la mobilisation relative des diff\u00e9rents groupes (attention, ces analyses se basent sur les pourcentages des inscrits).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Dans les d\u00e9partements qui ont fortement vot\u00e9 pour Emmanuel Macron au premier tour (o\u00f9 on observe un \u00e9cart avec Marine Le Pen sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 6&#160;%), on peut observer que la participation augmente avec le score du candidat LREM au premier tour et diminue avec celui de la candidate du Rassemblement national&#160;: l&rsquo;\u00e9lectorat du pr\u00e9sident sortant se mobilise, celui de Marine Le Pen se d\u00e9mobilise (La taille du disque correspond au nombre de votants concern\u00e9s).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.1jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.2jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Il est important et int\u00e9ressant de relever que dans les territoires d&rsquo;\u00cele-de-France de cette cat\u00e9gorie, les (tr\u00e8s nombreux) \u00e9lecteurs de candidats tiers ou abstentionnistes se remobilisent. C&rsquo;est beaucoup moins le cas dans l&rsquo;Ouest par exemple (en haut \u00e0 droite dans le graphique ci-dessous).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.3jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Ce r\u00e9sultat, coupl\u00e9 \u00e0 la d\u00e9mobilisation des \u00e9lecteur du Rassemblement national, sugg\u00e8re l\u2019\u00e9mergence d\u2019un \u00ab&#160;front r\u00e9publicain&#160;\u00bb en \u00cele-de-France (\u00ab&#160;front anti-Macron&#160;\u00bb statistiquement possible mais improbable)&#160;: la (seule) bonne nouvelle de cette analyse pour Emmanuel Macron.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Dans les territoires o\u00f9 Emmanuel Macron est arriv\u00e9 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement devant Marine Le Pen au premier tour (entre 2 et 6&#160;%), on n\u2019observe plus de front d&rsquo;aucune sorte&#160;: les soutiens d&rsquo;autres partis participent nettement moins. La Seine-Saint-Denis fait figure d\u2019exception o\u00f9, malgr\u00e9 des scores tr\u00e8s faibles des deux concurrents, la hausse de participation est dans la moyenne nationale&#160;: un probable effet du \u00ab&#160;tout sauf Marine Le Pen&#160;\u00bb de l&rsquo;\u00e9lectorat de gauche multiculturel de Seine-Saint-Denis.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.4jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u00c0 l&rsquo;inverse, dans ces zones, on se remobilise \u00e0 la fois chez les soutiens du pr\u00e9sident sortant et de Marine Le Pen (il est difficile de dire a priori qui cela avantagera).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.6jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.7jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Dans les d\u00e9partements o\u00f9 les deux candidats ont moins de deux points d&rsquo;\u00e9cart (toujours sur les inscrits), les \u00e9lecteurs n&rsquo;ayant soutenu ni l&rsquo;un ni l&rsquo;autre vont moins voter. Ici \u00e7a semble se remobiliser chez EM. C&rsquo;est moins clair chez MLP.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.8jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.9jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.10jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>L\u00e0 o\u00f9 Marine Le Pen est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement en t\u00eate (dont Marseille et Lille), la situation n\u2019est pas meilleure&#160;: l\u00e0 encore, les personnes ayant fait un autre choix au premier tour ne se mobilisent pas (et m\u00eame se d\u00e9mobilisent). En revanche, comme pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, on semble se mobiliser chez les soutiens d&rsquo;Emmanuel Macron et de Marine Le Pen.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.11jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.12jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-scaled.jpg\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"2560\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"1920\">\n                                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-330x248.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-690x518.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-990x743.jpg\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/10.13jpeg-125x94.jpg\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                            \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Enfin, dans les fiefs du Rassemblement national, on n\u2019observe pas non plus de \u00ab&#160;front r\u00e9publicain&#160;\u00bb visible dans les donn\u00e9es, mais toujours une d\u00e9mobilisation tendancielle des \u00e9lecteurs des autres partis. On observe toutefois encore une mobilisation au Rassemblement national et chez LREM.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>En conclusion&#160;: on ne peut gu\u00e8re s&rsquo;attendre \u00e0 un \u00ab&#160;front r\u00e9publicain&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 ce stade, mais l&rsquo;inverse ne para\u00eet pas non plus manifeste. Les dynamiques de mobilisation semblent cantonn\u00e9es aux fiefs des deux candidats, et faibles ailleurs\u2026 Seule l\u2019\u00cele-de-France applique de mani\u00e8re nette une logique \u00ab&#160;tout sauf le RN&#160;\u00bb, qui semble avoir disparu ailleurs, y compris dans les terres mod\u00e9r\u00e9es de l&rsquo;ouest. Les zones o\u00f9 le vote traditionnel de gauche est fort (sud-ouest) sont largement d\u00e9mobilis\u00e9es, et la Seine-Saint-Denis occupe dans ce paysage une position bien sp\u00e9cifique, comme expos\u00e9 plus haut.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plusieurs enseignements sont \u00e0 tirer de la participation de vote \u00e0 la mi-journ\u00e9e&#160;&#160;: on peut observer une d\u00e9mobilisation des \u00e9lectorats non repr\u00e9sent\u00e9s, l\u2019\u00e9mergence de quelques fiefs dynamiques mais pas de \u00ab&#160;&#160;front r\u00e9publicain&#160;&#160;\u00bb visible hors d&rsquo;\u00cele-de-France.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":137576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-137554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","staff-francois-hublet","geo-europe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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