{"id":123101,"date":"2021-10-11T21:24:26","date_gmt":"2021-10-11T19:24:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=123101"},"modified":"2021-10-11T21:24:31","modified_gmt":"2021-10-11T19:24:31","slug":"un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/","title":{"rendered":"Un Nobel pour la \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9volution de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9&#160;\u00bb en \u00e9conomie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Chacun de ces \u00e9conomistes a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 des avanc\u00e9es fondamentales dans son champ, les distinguant tr\u00e8s largement\u00a0parmi leurs pairs. Ainsi David Card a d\u00e9montr\u00e9, entre autres, que l\u2019immigration ne cr\u00e9e pas de hausse du ch\u00f4mage ou de pression \u00e0 la baisse des bas salaires parmi la population d\u2019accueil, \u00e0 partir de l\u2019\u00e9pisode d\u2019arriv\u00e9e de migrants cubains \u00e0 Miami en 1980, dit de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019exode de Mariel&#160;\u00bb. Joshua Angrist a quant \u00e0 lui montr\u00e9 que la pluris\u00e9culaire \u00ab&#160;loi de Ma\u00efmonide&#160;\u00bb, selon laquelle, au-del\u00e0 de 40 \u00e9l\u00e8ves par classe, les r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9l\u00e8ves baissent, est fond\u00e9e, contribuant ainsi \u00e0 hisser la question de la taille des classes \u00e0 l\u2019agenda public. Ensemble, Angrist et Imbens ont par ailleurs d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 des outils \u00e9conom\u00e9triques aujourd\u2019hui incontournables, comme les \u00ab&#160;variables instrumentales&#160;\u00bb, qui consistent \u00e0 utiliser des variables disponibles pour observer des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes sinon difficilement approchables.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Mais la coh\u00e9rence de ce trio est ailleurs, et tient \u00e0 la r\u00e9ponse qu\u2019ils ont apport\u00e9e ensemble et chacun de leur c\u00f4t\u00e9 au probl\u00e8me fondamental de la m\u00e9thode \u00e9conomique&#160;: mesurer la causalit\u00e9, \u00e0 partir d\u2019\u00e9chantillons hautement imparfaits de donn\u00e9es. Nous savons tous qu\u2019il ne faut pas trop vite passer de corr\u00e9lation \u00e0 causalit\u00e9, qu\u2019il s\u2019agit d\u2019\u00ab&#160;identifier&#160;\u00bb et d\u2019\u00ab&#160;inf\u00e9rer&#160;\u00bb de mani\u00e8re robuste, <em>a fortiori<\/em> en sciences sociales o\u00f9 les variables sont quasi-inextricablement li\u00e9es. La question est de savoir comment, et Agrist, Imbens et Card y ont largement r\u00e9pondu en cr\u00e9ant une s\u00e9rie d\u2019outils qui ont permis de rapprocher l\u2019\u00e9conomie d\u2019une science exp\u00e9rimentale, capable de donner des r\u00e9sultats de causalit\u00e9 <em>cr\u00e9dibles<\/em>.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Ils ont par exemple contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9montrer l\u2019importance des \u00ab&#160;exp\u00e9riences naturelles&#160;\u00bb, qui consistent \u00e0 utiliser un \u00e9v\u00e9nement r\u00e9el, local et bien document\u00e9 au sein duquel deux groupes, le groupe \u00ab&#160;trait\u00e9&#160;\u00bb et le groupe \u00ab&#160;t\u00e9moin&#160;\u00bb sont distingu\u00e9s, pour identifier l\u2019effet causal d\u2019un \u00ab&#160;traitement&#160;\u00bb uniquement dispens\u00e9 au groupe trait\u00e9, par exemple une politique publique ou un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne social. En d\u00e9finitive, les \u00e9conomistes pouvant rarement faire des exp\u00e9riences en laboratoire \u00e0 la bonne \u00e9chelle, l\u2019histoire leur fournit ce qu\u2019il faut. Joshua Angrist a ainsi utilis\u00e9 le fait que les soldats envoy\u00e9s au Vietnam \u00e9taient tir\u00e9s au hasard pour mesurer l\u2019effet du service militaire sur le revenu d\u2019un individu. David Card, avec Alan Krueger, a reconnu dans l\u2019augmentation du salaire minimum du New Jersey une formidable opportunit\u00e9 de mesurer son effet sur le ch\u00f4mage en comparant avec la situation \u2013 inchang\u00e9e \u2013 de la Pennsylvanie voisine, d\u00e9montrant paradoxalement qu\u2019une hausse de salaire minimum augmente l\u2019emploi<em>\u00a0in real life<\/em>.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Ils ont \u00e9galement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper d\u2019autres m\u00e9thodes aujourd\u2019hui largement standardis\u00e9es, des \u00ab&#160;variables instrumentales&#160;\u00bb aux \u00ab&#160;diff-in-diff&#160;\u00bb, en passant par les \u00ab&#160;<em>regression discontinuity design<\/em>&#160;\u00bb, etc. Ces outils, de m\u00eame que le d\u00e9veloppement des outils statistiques et la croissance de la qualit\u00e9 et de la disponibilit\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es, ont permis ce qu\u2019Angrist lui-m\u00eame appelle avec J\u00f6rn-Steffen Pischke la \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9volution de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 en \u00e9conomie empirique&#160;\u00bb. La part des travaux empiriques publi\u00e9s dans les meilleurs revus a en effet doubl\u00e9 entre les ann\u00e9es 1990 et la fin des ann\u00e9es 2010 (<a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.aeaweb.org\/doi\/pdfplus\/10.1257\/aer.p20171117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Angrist et al., 2017<\/a>).\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Cette r\u00e9volution de cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9, fond\u00e9e sur un renouveau m\u00e9thodologique, confine au fond \u00e0 une r\u00e9volution \u00e9pist\u00e9mologique, au vu du relatif d\u00e9clin des publications purement th\u00e9oriques, qui fait \u00e9galement peser sur la macro\u00e9conomie, moins prompte \u00e0 l\u2019exp\u00e9rience, un certain soup\u00e7on. La question de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 que donnent les m\u00e9thodes quasi-exp\u00e9rimentales d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es par les trois laur\u00e9ats du prix en 2021 n\u2019est pas simplement celle des instruments de l\u2019\u00e9conomie et de ses bonnes pratiques, mais aussi celle de ses limites et de ses objectifs. Ils ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire de l\u2019\u00e9conomie une science appliqu\u00e9e et d\u2019\u00e9valuation des politiques publiques \u2013 un suppl\u00e9ment de cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 qui n\u2019est pas en effort vain pour partir \u00e0 la reconqu\u00eate des espaces politiques min\u00e9s par la \u00ab&#160;post-v\u00e9rit\u00e9&#160;\u00bb.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Ces \u00e9conomistes ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 sortir l\u2019\u00e9conomie des deux dangers qui la guettent&#160;: le fantasme d\u2019une science sociale si math\u00e9matis\u00e9e qu\u2019elle serait aussi robuste qu\u2019une science dure d\u2019une part, et le renoncement \u00e0 toute tentative d\u2019identification des liens causaux d\u2019autre part.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>La communaut\u00e9 \u00e9conomique n\u2019a pas manqu\u00e9 de rappeler le fait qu\u2019Alan Krueger, d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 en 2019, avait tr\u00e8s largement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 ces diff\u00e9rents travaux, et les avait port\u00e9s haut dans l\u2019agenda public depuis son poste au Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain pendant le mandat de Barack Obama.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ce lundi 11 octobre, le prix de la Banque de Su\u00e8de en sciences \u00e9conomiques en m\u00e9moire d&rsquo;Alfred Nobel a r\u00e9compens\u00e9 trois \u00e9conomistes&#160;: David Card, pour \u00ab&#160;ses contributions empiriques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie du travail&#160;\u00bb, et Joshua Angrist et Guido Imbens, pour \u00ab&#160;leurs contributions m\u00e9thodologiques \u00e0 l\u2019analyse des relations causales&#160;\u00bb. Quelques points synth\u00e9tiques pour comprendre leurs apports respectifs et le tournant \u00e9pist\u00e9mologique qu&rsquo;ils repr\u00e9sentent en \u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":123102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[1715],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-123101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","staff-thomas-belaich","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-monde"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":123102,"excerpt":"Ce lundi 11 octobre, le prix de la Banque de Su\u00e8de en sciences \u00e9conomiques en m\u00e9moire d'Alfred Nobel a r\u00e9compens\u00e9 trois \u00e9conomistes : David Card, pour \u00ab ses contributions empiriques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie du travail \u00bb, et Joshua Angrist et Guido Imbens, pour \u00ab leurs contributions m\u00e9thodologiques \u00e0 l\u2019analyse des relations causales \u00bb. Quelques points synth\u00e9tiques pour comprendre leurs apports respectifs et le tournant \u00e9pist\u00e9mologique qu'ils repr\u00e9sentent en \u00e9conomie.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Un Nobel pour la \u00ab r\u00e9volution de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 \u00bb en \u00e9conomie | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Un Nobel pour la \u00ab r\u00e9volution de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 \u00bb en \u00e9conomie | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ce lundi 11 octobre, le prix de la Banque de Su\u00e8de en sciences \u00e9conomiques en m\u00e9moire d&#039;Alfred Nobel a r\u00e9compens\u00e9 trois \u00e9conomistes&#160;: David Card, pour \u00ab&#160;ses contributions empiriques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie du travail&#160;\u00bb, et Joshua Angrist et Guido Imbens, pour \u00ab&#160;leurs contributions m\u00e9thodologiques \u00e0 l\u2019analyse des relations causales&#160;\u00bb. Quelques points synth\u00e9tiques pour comprendre leurs apports respectifs et le tournant \u00e9pist\u00e9mologique qu&#039;ils repr\u00e9sentent en \u00e9conomie.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-10-11T19:24:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-11T19:24:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/gc-nobel-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1435\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matheo Malik\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/gc-nobel-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Matheo Malik\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/\",\"name\":\"Un Nobel pour la \u00ab r\u00e9volution de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 \u00bb en \u00e9conomie | Le Grand Continent\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SIPA_01043014_000001-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-10-11T19:24:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-11T19:24:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/a1c2123a1ef5abd663fcde8f63063d45\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/10\/11\/un-nobel-pour-la-revolution-de-la-credibilite-en-economie\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SIPA_01043014_000001-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SIPA_01043014_000001-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707,\"caption\":\"(211011) -- STOCKHOLM, Oct. 11, 2021 (Xinhua) -- Portraits of the 2021 Nobel laureates in Economics are seen at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm, Sweden, on Oct. 11, 2021. 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