{"id":51553,"date":"2024-12-28T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-28T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=51553"},"modified":"2024-12-28T05:35:12","modified_gmt":"2024-12-28T04:35:12","slug":"cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para la econom\u00eda rusa en 2025?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Desde 2022, la econom\u00eda rusa ha desafiado las expectativas, con un crecimiento del 3,6% en 2023 y probablemente del 4% este a\u00f1o. Los ingresos de los hogares han aumentado, el desempleo est\u00e1 en su nivel m\u00e1s bajo, y China estudia ahora el modelo ruso en previsi\u00f3n de una posible invasi\u00f3n de Taiw\u00e1n&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-51553' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-51553' title='Georgi Kantchev et Lingling Wei, \u00ab\u00a0&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/china-is-studying-russias-sanctions-evasion-to-prepare-for-taiwan-conflict-5665f508&quot;&gt;China Is Studying Russia\u2019s Sanctions Evasion to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict&lt;\/a&gt;\u00a0\u00bb,\u00a0&lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 1 de diciembre de 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sin embargo, la ilusi\u00f3n de buena salud econ\u00f3mica se basa en una serie de factores clave que corren peligro de romperse a corto plazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>El gasto del Kremlin en compra de armamento y mantenimiento del ej\u00e9rcito ha aumentado un 40% este a\u00f1o en el periodo enero-septiembre en comparaci\u00f3n con 2023, hasta el punto de que Rusia gasta una media de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/10\/guerra-en-ucrania-rusia-gasta-una-media-de-2-000-millones-de-rublos-por-hora-para-su-ejercito\/\">2.000 millones de rublos por hora<\/a> en su ej\u00e9rcito.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sin embargo, el complejo militar-industrial adolece de importantes debilidades estructurales, como demuestra su creciente dependencia de Corea del Norte. Seg\u00fan el ej\u00e9rcito surcoreano, Pyongyang se dispone a aumentar a\u00fan m\u00e1s su apoyo militar a Rusia&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-51553' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-51553' title='Jiheon Kim, \u00ab\u00a0&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241223050500504?section=north-korea\/all&quot;&gt;\ubd81, \ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc790\ud3ed\ud615 \ubb34\uc778\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \ub3d9\ud5a5\u2026\uad50\ub300\u00b7\uc99d\uc6d0\uad70 \uc900\ube44\ub3c4&lt;\/a&gt;\u00a0\u00bb,\u00a0&lt;em&gt;Yonhap News Agency&lt;\/em&gt;, 23 de diciembre de 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kBJTH\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La inflaci\u00f3n alcanz\u00f3 el 9,5% en 2024 (<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/11\/18\/los-precios-de-los-alimentos-en-rusia-se-han-disparado-desde-principios-de-ano\/\">el precio de la mantequilla subi\u00f3 m\u00e1s de un 30% durante el a\u00f1o<\/a>) y los tipos de inter\u00e9s se sit\u00faan en el 21%, con escaso efecto en la din\u00e1mica de los precios. El pa\u00eds se enfrenta a una escasez de m\u00e1s de 1,5 millones de trabajadores cualificados. La producci\u00f3n de las industrias extractivas est\u00e1 disminuyendo, al tiempo que caen los precios de exportaci\u00f3n de los hidrocarburos. Al mismo tiempo, los ingresos de exportaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds se han estancado debido a las sanciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/gPoZ4\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Para 2025, el FMI prev\u00e9 un crecimiento de Rusia del 1,3%. Sin embargo, no hay indicios de cambio de rumbo: en 2025, los gastos de defensa deber\u00edan alcanzar los 145.000 millones de d\u00f3lares, el nivel m\u00e1s alto desde el hundimiento de la URSS (6,3% del PIB), frente a los 66.000 millones de 2021.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sin embargo, es probable que cualquier aumento de la producci\u00f3n militar provoque una mayor inflaci\u00f3n o debilite a\u00fan m\u00e1s otros sectores econ\u00f3micos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adem\u00e1s de las tendencias demogr\u00e1ficas negativas, las disparidades geogr\u00e1ficas de esta econom\u00eda de guerra \u2014se han beneficiado algunas de las regiones m\u00e1s pobres, que han enviado m\u00e1s soldados al frente\u2014 tambi\u00e9n podr\u00edan afectar a las perspectivas de crecimiento a largo plazo&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-51553' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-51553' title='Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Iikka Korhonen y Elina Ribakova,\u00a0&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/cepr.org\/voxeu\/columns\/russian-economy-war-footing-new-reality-financed-commodity-exports&quot;&gt;The Russian economy on a war footing\u00a0: A new reality financed by commodity exports&lt;\/a&gt;, CEPR, 24 de mayo de 2024'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Las sanciones impuestas a Rusia por los pa\u00edses occidentales han tenido graves repercusiones en la econom\u00eda del pa\u00eds. Aunque no han bastado para paralizar su industria lo suficiente como para obligar a Mosc\u00fa a poner fin a la guerra, el coste de la agresi\u00f3n es cada vez m\u00e1s alto para Putin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1366,"featured_media":51554,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"geo":[182],"class_list":["post-51553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","geo-asia-septentrional"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para la econom\u00eda rusa en 2025? - El Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para la econom\u00eda rusa en 2025? - El Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Las sanciones impuestas a Rusia por los pa\u00edses occidentales han tenido graves repercusiones en la econom\u00eda del pa\u00eds. Aunque no han bastado para paralizar su industria lo suficiente como para obligar a Mosc\u00fa a poner fin a la guerra, el coste de la agresi\u00f3n es cada vez m\u00e1s alto para Putin.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"El Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-28T06:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-12-28T04:35:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/12\/kBJTH-estimaci-n-del-gasto-ruso-en-defensa-2021-2024-por-trimestre-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1232\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"926\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"florent\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"florent\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/12\/28\/cuales-son-las-perspectivas-para-la-economia-rusa-en-2025\/\",\"name\":\"\u00bfCu\u00e1les son las perspectivas para la econom\u00eda rusa en 2025? 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