{"id":39064,"date":"2024-07-07T21:42:54","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T19:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=39064"},"modified":"2024-07-07T21:42:56","modified_gmt":"2024-07-07T19:42:56","slug":"legislativas-francesas-ensemble-el-ps-y-lr-tendrian-mayoria-absoluta-descubre-nuestro-simulador-para-construir-tu-coalicion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/07\/07\/legislativas-francesas-ensemble-el-ps-y-lr-tendrian-mayoria-absoluta-descubre-nuestro-simulador-para-construir-tu-coalicion\/","title":{"rendered":"Legislativas francesas: Ensemble, el PS y LR tendr\u00edan mayor\u00eda absoluta. Descubre nuestro simulador para construir tu coalici\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Esta noche, todos nuestros an\u00e1lisis de las elecciones legislativas de 2024 est\u00e1n en acceso libre. Este trabajo tiene un coste. Si crees que merece apoyo y puedes permit\u00edrtelo,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/ofiertas-new-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">te pedimos que te suscribas al Grand Continent<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Utilizando nuestro simulador exclusivo de coaliciones basado en las estimaciones de Ipsos de esta tarde, la alianza del PS, Ensemble (MoDem, Renaissance, Horizons, Divers centre) y la derecha (LR y Divers droite) podr\u00eda obtener la mayor\u00eda absoluta con 295 diputados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  frame-coalition-fr-div\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/coalitions_live2.htm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tal mayor\u00eda recordar\u00eda a un escenario de coalici\u00f3n conocido \u2014pero nunca ensayado a nivel federal\u2014 en Alemania: la coalici\u00f3n negro-rojo-amarillo, los colores de la bandera alemana, entre la CDU, el SPD y el FDP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Adem\u00e1s del \u00e9xito de la apuesta de Attal por las retiradas, que dar\u00eda al grupo Ensemble entre 150 y 170 esca\u00f1os, la hip\u00f3tesis de tal escenario se deriva de dos lecciones menos visibles de esta segunda vuelta:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>El Nuevo Frente Popular ha beneficiado enormemente al PS, que aumenta su n\u00famero de diputados en un +109% respecto a 2022. En Corr\u00e8ze, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/07\/07\/legislativas-francesas-francois-hollande-gerald-darmanin-y-francois-ruffin-elegidos-actualizacion-a-las-2110\/\">Fran\u00e7ois Hollande ha sido reelegido<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>El declive de LR parece haberse frenado: es la primera vez desde 2012 que la derecha no sufre una p\u00e9rdida masiva de esca\u00f1os de una legislatura a otra, manteni\u00e9ndose estable respecto a 2022.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Publicamos el primer simulador de coaliciones basado en las estimaciones a pie de urna de Ipsos.<\/p>\n<p>Dado que los socialistas han obtenido mejores resultados que en 2022 y que LR se ha resistido a la ruptura de Ciotti, habr\u00eda margen para una amplia coalici\u00f3n de centro, del PS a la LR.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1366,"featured_media":39060,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":1,"footnotes":""},"categories":[844],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[177],"class_list":["post-39064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislativas-2024","geo-europa"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":39060,"excerpt":"Publicamos el primer simulador de coaliciones basado en las estimaciones a pie de urna de Ipsos.\r\n\r\nDado que los socialistas han obtenido mejores resultados que en 2022 y que LR se ha resistido a la ruptura de Ciotti, habr\u00eda margen para una amplia coalici\u00f3n de centro, del PS a la LR.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Legislativas francesas: Ensemble, el PS y LR tendr\u00edan mayor\u00eda absoluta. Descubre nuestro simulador para construir tu coalici\u00f3n - El Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/07\/07\/legislativas-francesas-ensemble-el-ps-y-lr-tendrian-mayoria-absoluta-descubre-nuestro-simulador-para-construir-tu-coalicion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Legislativas francesas: Ensemble, el PS y LR tendr\u00edan mayor\u00eda absoluta. Descubre nuestro simulador para construir tu coalici\u00f3n - El Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Publicamos el primer simulador de coaliciones basado en las estimaciones a pie de urna de Ipsos.  Dado que los socialistas han obtenido mejores resultados que en 2022 y que LR se ha resistido a la ruptura de Ciotti, habr\u00eda margen para una amplia coalici\u00f3n de centro, del PS a la LR.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/07\/07\/legislativas-francesas-ensemble-el-ps-y-lr-tendrian-mayoria-absoluta-descubre-nuestro-simulador-para-construir-tu-coalicion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"El Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-07T19:42:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-07T19:42:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/Capture-decran-2024-07-07-a-9.29.51\u202fPM.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"4096\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2304\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"florent\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"florent\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minuto\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/07\/07\/legislativas-francesas-ensemble-el-ps-y-lr-tendrian-mayoria-absoluta-descubre-nuestro-simulador-para-construir-tu-coalicion\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/07\/07\/legislativas-francesas-ensemble-el-ps-y-lr-tendrian-mayoria-absoluta-descubre-nuestro-simulador-para-construir-tu-coalicion\/\",\"name\":\"Legislativas francesas: Ensemble, el PS y LR tendr\u00edan mayor\u00eda absoluta. 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