{"id":28169,"date":"2024-01-09T12:16:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-09T11:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=28169"},"modified":"2024-01-09T19:10:37","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T18:10:37","slug":"una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/","title":{"rendered":"Una invasi\u00f3n china de Taiw\u00e1n generar\u00eda una p\u00e9rdida del 10% del PIB mundial"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Para modelizar el impacto de una guerra china contra Taiw\u00e1n en el PIB mundial, <em>Bloomberg Economics<\/em> calcula que provocar\u00eda:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>un cese de las exportaciones e importaciones de la isla ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>una interrupci\u00f3n casi total de las relaciones comerciales sino-estadounidenses; <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>la imposici\u00f3n de aranceles del 50% por parte de Estados Unidos y sus aliados a los productos chinos;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>un aumento de 40 puntos en el \u00cdndice de Volatilidad (VIX), que mide la volatilidad del mercado burs\u00e1til estadounidense;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>una ca\u00edda del 80% en el comercio hacia y desde Jap\u00f3n, Corea del Sur y los pa\u00edses de la ASEAN.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ldA5i\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Calculando el coste asociado a estas consecuencias directas, el impacto de una guerra contra Taiw\u00e1n podr\u00eda ser del 10,2% del PIB mundial en el primer a\u00f1o, es decir, 10 billones de d\u00f3lares. Un bloqueo chino de la isla podr\u00eda suponer una p\u00e9rdida del 5% del PIB mundial. En ambos casos, la propia China se expondr\u00eda a graves consecuencias econ\u00f3micas&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-28169' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-28169' title='Jennifer Welch, Jenny Leonard, Maeva Cousin, Gerard DiPippo y Tom Orlik, \u00ab\u00a0&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2024-01-09\/if-china-invades-taiwan-it-would-cost-world-economy-10-trillion&quot;&gt;Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan&lt;\/a&gt;\u00a0\u00bb,\u00a0&lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 9 de de enero de 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/P2DLv\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Taiw\u00e1n ser\u00eda el pa\u00eds m\u00e1s afectado econ\u00f3micamente por una guerra china. Su p\u00e9rdida de PIB en el primer a\u00f1o se estima en un 40%. A modo de comparaci\u00f3n, el Fondo Monetario Internacional calcula que el PIB de Ucrania se habr\u00e1 contra\u00eddo alrededor de un 30% en 2022&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-28169' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-28169' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/News\/Articles\/2023\/04\/05\/cf-amid-war-ukraine-is-maintaining-macroeconomic-stability-and-embarking-on-reforms&quot;&gt;Amid War, Ukraine Is Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability and Embarking on Reforms&lt;\/a&gt;, Fondo Monetario Internacional, 5 de abril de 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de los choques comerciales y financieros, es el impacto en el suministro mundial de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2022\/11\/08\/guerra-tecnologica-10-puntos-sobre-el-semiconductores\/\">semiconductores<\/a> lo que se prev\u00e9 que asestar\u00e1 el golpe m\u00e1s duro a las econom\u00edas (-8% global y para la Uni\u00f3n Europea, -12% para China y -5% para Estados Unidos).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bloomberg reconoce que existe incertidumbre sobre \u00abhasta qu\u00e9 punto la producci\u00f3n taiwanesa de semiconductores podr\u00eda ser sustituida por la de otros lugares\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Seg\u00fan un informe de International Data Corporation de octubre de 2023, los fabricantes taiwaneses representaron el 46% de la producci\u00f3n mundial de semiconductores el a\u00f1o pasado&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-28169' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-28169' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.idc.com\/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP51281723&quot;&gt;Geopolitical Shifts Reshape Semiconductor Landscape, Taiwan\u2019s Foundry, Assembly and Test Shares to Drop to 43\u00a0% and 47\u00a0%, Respectively, in 2027, IDC Finds&lt;\/a&gt;, International Data Corporation, 2 de octubre de 2023.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/784kE\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>El riesgo que supone una invasi\u00f3n china de Taiw\u00e1n desempe\u00f1ar\u00e1 un papel central en las elecciones presidenciales que se celebrar\u00e1n este s\u00e1bado 13 de enero. En su discurso de A\u00f1o Nuevo, Xi Jinping declar\u00f3 que \u00abChina se reunificar\u00e1 sin duda y todos los chinos a ambos lados del estrecho de Taiw\u00e1n deben estar unidos por un objetivo com\u00fan\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-28169' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-28169' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/english.news.cn\/20231231\/4e0fc2697d994cd2b4dcb5dca525a611\/c.html&quot;&gt;Full text of President Xi Jinping\u2019s 2024 New Year message&lt;\/a&gt;, 31 de diciembre de 2023.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Esta formulaci\u00f3n marca un tono m\u00e1s firme que el utilizado a finales de 2022, cuando Xi Jinping se limit\u00f3 a describir a chinos y taiwaneses como \u00abmiembros de una misma familia\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-28169' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-28169' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/english.news.cn\/20221231\/352449693f7045eeb0321482d6b69a85\/c.html&quot;&gt;Full Text\u00a0: 2023 New Year Address by President Xi Jinping&lt;\/a&gt;, 31 de diciembre de 2022.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seg\u00fan una simulaci\u00f3n elaborada por Bloomberg Economics, una guerra china contra Taiw\u00e1n costar\u00eda al mundo m\u00e1s de 10 billones de d\u00f3lares en el primer a\u00f1o, es decir, el 10,2% del PIB mundial. Las elecciones presidenciales en la isla se celebran este s\u00e1bado 13 de enero.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1366,"featured_media":28168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[522],"tags":[],"geo":[197],"class_list":["post-28169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-los-datos-que-lo-cambian-todo","geo-asia-oriental"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Una invasi\u00f3n china de Taiw\u00e1n generar\u00eda una p\u00e9rdida del 10% del PIB mundial - El Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2024\/01\/09\/una-invasion-china-de-taiwan-costaria-el-10-del-pib-mundial\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Una invasi\u00f3n china de Taiw\u00e1n generar\u00eda una p\u00e9rdida del 10% del PIB mundial - El Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seg\u00fan una simulaci\u00f3n elaborada por Bloomberg Economics, una guerra china contra Taiw\u00e1n costar\u00eda al mundo m\u00e1s de 10 billones de d\u00f3lares en el primer a\u00f1o, es decir, el 10,2% del PIB mundial. 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