{"id":21530,"date":"2023-08-22T13:50:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-22T12:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=21530"},"modified":"2023-08-22T16:10:46","modified_gmt":"2023-08-22T15:10:46","slug":"hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfHacia d\u00f3nde se dirige la econom\u00eda china?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>En su actualizaci\u00f3n de abril de las Perspectivas Econ\u00f3micas Mundiales, el Fondo Monetario Internacional present\u00f3 a China como el principal contribuyente al crecimiento mundial durante los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os, y se espera que su cuota duplique a la de Estados Unidos&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-21530' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2023\/04\/11\/world-economic-outlook-april-2023?cid=bl-com-spring2023flagships-WEOEA2023001&quot;&gt;World Economic Outlook. A Rocky Recovery&lt;\/a&gt;, Fondo Monetario Internacional, abril de 2023.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/SKPEb\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Seg\u00fan los c\u00e1lculos de <em>Bloomberg<\/em>, se espera que la cuota de China en el crecimiento del PIB bruto mundial alcance el 22,6% para el periodo 2023-2028, muy por delante de India (12,9%) y Estados Unidos (11,3%)&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-21530' title='Alexandre Tanzi, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-04-17\/china-to-be-top-world-growth-source-in-next-five-years-imf-says&quot;&gt;China to Be Top World Growth Source in Next Five Years, IMF Says&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 17 de abril de 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cuando <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/07\/25\/las-previsiones-de-crecimiento-de-las-principales-economias-se-revisan-al-alza-salvo-las-de-alemania\/\">actualiz\u00f3 sus perspectivas a finales de julio<\/a>, el FMI no rebaj\u00f3 sus previsiones de crecimiento para 2023 (5,2%) y 2024 (4,5%), a pesar de los indicios de que \u00abla recuperaci\u00f3n de China estar\u00eda perdiendo fuelle\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si bien la econom\u00eda china \u00ababsorbe alrededor de una cuarta parte de las exportaciones de Asia y entre el 5% y el 10% de las de otras regiones geogr\u00e1ficas\u00bb, el descenso del consumo de los hogares podr\u00eda tener \u00abimplicaciones potencialmente negativas\u00bb para la econom\u00eda regional y mundial.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ryYEV\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Aunque Pek\u00edn ha eliminado gradualmente su pol\u00edtica de tipos de inter\u00e9s cero a partir de diciembre de 2022 -apuntando a un repunte de la demanda, alimentada por una tasa de ahorro familiar hist\u00f3rica&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-21530' title='Cheng Leng y Hudson Lockett, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/2c066d1c-11a8-455a-8a9f-31f3d3d46b99&quot;&gt;China\u2019s record $2.6tn rise in savings fuels \u2018revenge spending\u2019 hopes&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 de enero de 2023.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>&#8211; la recuperaci\u00f3n no se ha materializado. Al contrario, los \u00faltimos datos publicados indican que la econom\u00eda sigue ralentiz\u00e1ndose: las exportaciones cayeron un 14,5% interanual el mes pasado, la crisis inmobiliaria parece estar extendi\u00e9ndose al resto de la econom\u00eda y la semana pasada el Gobierno anunci\u00f3 que dejar\u00eda de publicar datos sobre el desempleo juvenil, que hab\u00eda alcanzado el 21,3% en junio&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-21530' title='Kenji Kawase, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Business\/Markets\/China-debt-crunch\/Missed-payments-by-China-s-Zhongzhi-hit-listed-companies?utm_campaign=IC_asia_daily_free&amp;amp;utm_medium=email&amp;amp;utm_source=NA_newsletter&amp;amp;utm_content=article_link&amp;amp;del_type=1&amp;amp;pub_date=20230822190500&amp;amp;seq_num=9&amp;amp;si=33a27f51-add8-49f7-9101-79378f2431dc&quot;&gt;Missed payments by China&amp;#8217;s Zhongzhi hit listed companies&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Nikkei Asia&lt;\/em&gt;, 22 de agosto de 2023.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Desde que Xi Jinping lleg\u00f3 al poder en 2013, el n\u00famero de indicadores econ\u00f3micos publicados por la Oficina Nacional de Estad\u00edstica se ha dividido por cuatro&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-21530' title='John Burn-Murdoch, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/43bea201-ff6c-4d94-8506-e58ff787802c?accessToken=zwAGA4McCDFQkc9DvqIB_2xNlNOFBuWP94eALA.MEUCICfcObpt6lc32e2-swKnUkRndOYFaeyzJkXPJRbJSgcuAiEAofy978TWY5H7YvAO3d2xWmXvTy-Tz66pvAacA8SLeIA&amp;amp;sharetype=gift&amp;amp;token=04cae2e7-a81f-4fd8-a3e1-c00bea11411d&quot;&gt;China\u2019s GDP blackout isn\u2019t fooling anyone&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 21 de octubre de 2022.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/I2dFB\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A pesar de un ligero repunte del crecimiento en el segundo trimestre de 2023, el PIB chino s\u00f3lo representa ahora el 66,8% del PIB estadounidense, frente al 76,7% de su m\u00e1ximo en el primer trimestre de 2022.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aunque el Gobierno haya puesto en marcha una serie de medidas para fomentar el consumo y la inversi\u00f3n en el mercado inmobiliario, la p\u00e9rdida de confianza de los hogares chinos -vinculada en gran medida a la gesti\u00f3n de la pandemia- parece ser uno de los s\u00edntomas de un \u00abCovid econ\u00f3mico\u00bb m\u00e1s duradero de lo previsto&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-21530' title='Adam S. Posen, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/china\/end-china-economic-miracle-beijing-washington?check_logged_in=1&quot;&gt;The End of China\u2019s Economic Miracle&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Foreign Affairs&lt;\/em&gt;, 2 de agosto de 2023.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/8eI1i\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La \u00abcrisis\u00bb a la que se enfrenta la econom\u00eda china no es s\u00f3lo el resultado de su respuesta a la Covid, sino tambi\u00e9n de las dificultades acumuladas durante las d\u00e9cadas que permitieron el enorme crecimiento del pa\u00eds. Adem\u00e1s de los riesgos asociados a la acumulaci\u00f3n de deuda &#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/05\/17\/el-sobreendeudamiento-de-las-provincias-chinas-amenaza-el-modelo-de-crecimiento-del-pais\/\">sobre todo por parte de las provincias<\/a> y los veh\u00edculos de financiaci\u00f3n de los gobiernos locales (LGFV)-, la deflaci\u00f3n y la formaci\u00f3n de una <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/01\/14\/zhao-yanjing-sobre-la-crisis-inmobiliaria-en-china\/\">burbuja inmobiliaria<\/a>, China se enfrenta tambi\u00e9n a un \u00abmuro demogr\u00e1fico\u00bb con el que se han topado Corea del Sur y Jap\u00f3n en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-21530' title='Gideon Rachman, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8206671b-acae-47a3-94df-dfacc94b9c6c&quot;&gt;China hits the east Asian demographic wall&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 21 de agosto de 2023.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Con una tasa de fertilidad de 1,09 en 2022, es probable que el envejecimiento y la disminuci\u00f3n de la poblaci\u00f3n sigan ejerciendo presi\u00f3n sobre la econom\u00eda china&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-8-21530' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-8-21530' title='Liyan Qi, \u00ab&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/chinas-fertility-rate-dropped-sharply-study-shows-e97e647f&quot;&gt;China\u2019s Fertility Rate Dropped Sharply, Study Shows&lt;\/a&gt;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 19 de agosto de&amp;nbsp;2023.'><sup>8<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seg\u00fan el FMI, China ser\u00e1 el principal contribuyente al crecimiento mundial en los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os. Sin embargo, en las \u00faltimas semanas, nuevos datos y anuncios han puesto de manifiesto signos de debilidad estructural en la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1366,"featured_media":21522,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[197],"class_list":["post-21530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","geo-asia-oriental"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfHacia d\u00f3nde se dirige la econom\u00eda china? - El Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/08\/22\/hacia-donde-se-dirige-la-economia-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfHacia d\u00f3nde se dirige la econom\u00eda china? - El Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seg\u00fan el FMI, China ser\u00e1 el principal contribuyente al crecimiento mundial en los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os. 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