{"id":18129,"date":"2023-06-07T09:35:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-07T08:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=18129"},"modified":"2023-06-07T17:18:12","modified_gmt":"2023-06-07T16:18:12","slug":"una-fragil-recuperacion-de-la-economia-mundial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/06\/07\/una-fragil-recuperacion-de-la-economia-mundial\/","title":{"rendered":"Una fr\u00e1gil recuperaci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda mundial"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Seg\u00fan el informe&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-18129' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/06\/07\/una-fragil-recuperacion-de-la-economia-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-18129' title='Disponible en &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/newsroom\/global-economic-outlook-improving-albeit-to-a-low-growth-recovery.htm&quot;&gt;este enlace&lt;\/a&gt;.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, la inflaci\u00f3n general en los pa\u00edses de la OCDE descender\u00e1 del 9,4% en 2022 al 6,6% en 2023 y al 4,3% en 2024. Este descenso se debe a las recientes subidas de los tipos de inter\u00e9s oficiales, la bajada de los precios de la energ\u00eda y los alimentos y la recuperaci\u00f3n de las cadenas de valor.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Se espera que el crecimiento del PIB en EEUU sea del 1,6% en 2023, antes de ralentizarse hasta el 1,0% en 2024 debido al endurecimiento de las condiciones monetarias y financieras.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En la zona euro, el crecimiento del PIB deber\u00eda pasar del 0,9% en 2023 al 1,5% en 2024, gracias a una menor inflaci\u00f3n y al aumento de la renta real.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China tambi\u00e9n deber\u00eda registrar un crecimiento, del 5,4% en 2023 y del 5,1% en 2024, debido al levantamiento de la pol\u00edtica de cero-Covid gubernamental.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/cdV6l\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Sin embargo, la recuperaci\u00f3n sigue siendo fr\u00e1gil en un contexto de inseguridad energ\u00e9tica e inflaci\u00f3n sostenida. Algunas de las condiciones que contribuyeron a reducir la demanda de energ\u00eda este a\u00f1o, como un invierno benigno en Europa, podr\u00edan no repetirse el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La persistencia de la inflaci\u00f3n es otro riesgo; aunque la pol\u00edtica monetaria de los bancos centrales ha contribuido a reducir la inflaci\u00f3n general, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/05\/02\/la-inflacion-subyacente-de-la-zona-euro-bajo-ligeramente-en-abril\/\">la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente ha seguido aumentando en los \u00faltimos meses<\/a>, sobre todo en la Uni\u00f3n Europea. Esta subida se debe a un fuerte aumento del precio de los servicios y a unos mayores beneficios en determinados sectores.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La combinaci\u00f3n de una inflaci\u00f3n elevada y unos aumentos salariales modestos ha provocado una ca\u00edda de los salarios reales en 2022; sin embargo, el informe prev\u00e9 que se detenga durante 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>El impacto de la subida de los tipos de inter\u00e9s tambi\u00e9n se deja sentir en el conjunto de la econom\u00eda; seg\u00fan la OCDE, una pol\u00edtica monetaria restrictiva corre el riesgo de exponer a un mayor riesgo a los pa\u00edses muy endeudados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Un informe del FMI&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-18129' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2023\/06\/07\/una-fragil-recuperacion-de-la-economia-mundial\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-18129' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.imf.org\/es\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2023\/04\/11\/world-economic-outlook-april-2023&quot;&gt;Perspectivas de la econom\u00eda mundial&lt;\/a&gt;, FMI, abril de 2023.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> de abril destacaba que alrededor del 15% de los pa\u00edses de renta baja ya est\u00e1n sobreendeudados y el 45% son muy vulnerables al endeudamiento; adem\u00e1s, alrededor de una cuarta parte de las econom\u00edas emergentes corren un riesgo elevado y se enfrentan a diferenciales de endeudamiento similares a los de un impago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/M4pW7\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Seg\u00fan el FMI, el crecimiento mundial se mantendr\u00e1 en torno al 3% durante los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os &#8211; la previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento a medio plazo m\u00e1s baja desde 1990 &#8211; y por debajo de la media del 3,8% de las dos \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La situaci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda mundial ha empezado a mejorar, pero la recuperaci\u00f3n ser\u00e1 d\u00e9bil, seg\u00fan las \u00faltimas previsiones econ\u00f3micas de la OCDE; la organizaci\u00f3n prev\u00e9 un crecimiento del PIB mundial del 2,7% en 2023 (frente al 3,3% de 2022) y del 2,9% en 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1366,"featured_media":18101,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[198],"class_list":["post-18129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","geo-mundo"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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