{"id":115160,"date":"2026-10-16T09:31:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T07:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=115160"},"modified":"2026-10-16T09:31:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T07:31:50","slug":"china-miente-sobre-su-cantidad-de-habitantes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2026\/10\/16\/china-miente-sobre-su-cantidad-de-habitantes\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfMiente China sobre el n\u00famero de habitantes que tiene?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>En un estudio reciente, el dem\u00f3grafo Yi Fuxian, autor del libro <em>Big Country With an Empty Nest<\/em> y cr\u00edtico de la pol\u00edtica del hijo \u00fanico, prohibida en China en 2007, estima que la poblaci\u00f3n real del pa\u00eds en 2020 se situaba m\u00e1s bien en torno a los 1.270 millones, y no de 1.412 millones, como anunciaba el censo oficial.&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-115160' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2026\/10\/16\/china-miente-sobre-su-cantidad-de-habitantes\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-115160' title='Yi Fuxian, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/chinareview.org\/files\/asset-57a85d198e7d486d8ff87b69e7c3cf80&quot;&gt;\u00abChina&amp;#8217;s Population Data Manipulation\u00bb&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;Contemporary China Review&lt;\/em&gt;, vol. 8, p\u00e1gs. 2-92, 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Esta diferencia de unos 140 millones de habitantes \u2014lo que equivale aproximadamente a la poblaci\u00f3n de Rusia\u2014 podr\u00eda tener importantes repercusiones en las perspectivas del pa\u00eds y, en particular, en su modelo de crecimiento.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adem\u00e1s, China tiene una deuda enorme, cuyo servicio se prev\u00e9 que represente m\u00e1s del 19 % del presupuesto del gobierno central este a\u00f1o, es decir, 7 puntos m\u00e1s que en 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/HI6gT\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Hay varios indicios que sugieren que las estad\u00edsticas oficiales inflan artificialmente la poblaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds, y esto viene ocurriendo desde principios de la d\u00e9cada de 1990.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yi se\u00f1ala que el gobierno aprob\u00f3 la distribuci\u00f3n de unos 5,8 millones de viales al a\u00f1o de la vacuna BCG contra la tuberculosis, obligatoria para todos los reci\u00e9n nacidos, entre 2018 y 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ahora bien, con una media de casi 14 millones de nacimientos al a\u00f1o, seg\u00fan Pek\u00edn, se habr\u00edan necesitado entre 9 y 13 millones de viales: de hecho, en la pr\u00e1ctica, cada vial solo permite vacunar a entre 1,1 y 1,6 reci\u00e9n nacidos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Del mismo modo, Yi observa que el tama\u00f1o de la cohorte de ni\u00f1os nacidos en el a\u00f1o 2000 se ha reducido considerablemente quince a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s, pasando de 17,7 millones de nacimientos, seg\u00fan las estad\u00edsticas oficiales, a 14,2 millones de graduados de secundaria en 2015, a pesar de que la escolarizaci\u00f3n es obligatoria en el pa\u00eds.&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-115160' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2026\/10\/16\/china-miente-sobre-su-cantidad-de-habitantes\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-115160' title='Lingling Wei, \u00abA&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/a-demographic-mirage-may-be-distorting-chinas-economic-ambitions-adf0bc92&quot;&gt; Demographic Mirage May Be Distorting China\u2019s Economic Ambitions\u00bb&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 de octubre de 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Varios actores podr\u00edan haber tenido inter\u00e9s en inflar las estad\u00edsticas demogr\u00e1ficas: las administraciones locales, con el fin de obtener una mayor financiaci\u00f3n de la administraci\u00f3n central, la Oficina Nacional de Estad\u00edstica (ONE) y la Comisi\u00f3n de Planificaci\u00f3n Familiar, con el fin de legitimar el mantenimiento de la pol\u00edtica del hijo \u00fanico, pero tambi\u00e9n el propio poder, para quien una revisi\u00f3n a la baja de las cifras de poblaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda haber tenido consecuencias pol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/89feP\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>No obstante, la correcci\u00f3n de d\u00e9cadas de sobreestimaci\u00f3n de la poblaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda llevar a Pek\u00edn a rebajar sus ambiciones geopol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De hecho, Yi considera que, si el \u00edndice sint\u00e9tico de fecundidad de China se estabiliza en torno a 0,8 \u2014frente al menos de 1 actual, seg\u00fan \u00e9l\u2014, la poblaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds sufrir\u00eda una contracci\u00f3n sin precedentes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Seg\u00fan las estad\u00edsticas oficiales, la poblaci\u00f3n de China pasar\u00eda de los 1.400 millones de habitantes actuales a 1.000 millones en 2050 y a 620 millones en 2075. En 2100, el pa\u00eds solo contar\u00eda con 320 millones de habitantes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En ese caso, tendr\u00eda menos habitantes que Estados Unidos (unos 420 millones de habitantes en 2100, seg\u00fan las previsiones de las Naciones Unidas) y que Europa (unos 470 millones, sin contar Rusia).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seg\u00fan Yi Fuxian, la poblaci\u00f3n china podr\u00eda reducirse a 320 millones en 2100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":115169,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_source":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[126],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[1472],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[197],"class_list":["post-115160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demografia","editorial_format-analisis","geo-asia-oriental"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":115169,"excerpt":"Seg\u00fan Yi Fuxian, la poblaci\u00f3n china podr\u00eda reducirse a 320 millones en 2100.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfMiente China sobre el n\u00famero 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