{"id":112592,"date":"2026-09-30T12:13:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T10:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=112592"},"modified":"2026-09-30T12:13:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T10:13:33","slug":"deuda-francesa-se-esta-disparando","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2026\/09\/30\/deuda-francesa-se-esta-disparando\/","title":{"rendered":"La deuda francesa se est\u00e1 disparando"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Seg\u00fan Shahin Vall\u00e9e, antiguo asesor econ\u00f3mico de Emmanuel Macron en el Ministerio de Hacienda, en tres semanas Francia ha entrado en una zona de \u00abpeligro hist\u00f3rico\u00bb en lo que respecta a su deuda.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00abNadie parece querer hablar, ni en la prensa ni en la clase pol\u00edtica, de esta p\u00e9rdida de control del diferencial entre los bonos OAT y los Bund\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>El diferencial corresponde a la diferencia entre el tipo de inter\u00e9s que paga Francia por un empr\u00e9stito a 10 a\u00f1os y el que paga Alemania, considerada el emisor m\u00e1s seguro de la zona del euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cuanto m\u00e1s se acent\u00faa esta diferencia, m\u00e1s exigen los mercados a Francia una prima de riesgo para compensar el riesgo que asumen al prestarle dinero.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ljMWk\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00abEl diferencial estaba por debajo de los 70 puntos b\u00e1sicos (pb) en primavera y, a finales de agosto, rondaba los 85 pb. Hoy supera los 110 pb, lo que significa que Francia se financia un 1,1% m\u00e1s caro que Alemania\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00bfQu\u00e9 consecuencias concretas tiene esto? \u00abEn tres semanas, Francia habr\u00eda perdido el equivalente a 15.000 millones de euros al a\u00f1o en carga adicional de la deuda durante un periodo de diez a\u00f1os. En total, eso supondr\u00eda casi 100.000 millones de euros a lo largo de la d\u00e9cada\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Para hacerse una idea, 15.000 millones equivalen aproximadamente a una vez y media el presupuesto de Justicia, o a la mitad del de Educaci\u00f3n Superior e Investigaci\u00f3n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>El total de la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica francesa ronda los 130 mil millones al a\u00f1o.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Seg\u00fan Shahin Vall\u00e9e, Francia se est\u00e1 acercando a dos m\u00e1ximos: \u00abAvanzamos a pasos agigantados hacia nuestro nivel m\u00e1s alto en el euro, es decir, 211 puntos b\u00e1sicos en noviembre de 2011, en el punto \u00e1lgido de la crisis de la deuda soberana\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En 1992, durante la crisis del franco, marcada por ataques especulativos contra el Sistema Monetario Europeo, el diferencial de los tipos a largo plazo se mantuvo por debajo de los 150 puntos b\u00e1sicos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En 1983, antes de la introducci\u00f3n del euro, el diferencial con Alemania hab\u00eda alcanzado casi 700 puntos b\u00e1sicos. El Gobierno de Mauroy se vio entonces obligado a abandonar la pol\u00edtica socialista de reactivaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica para dar paso al \u00abgiro hacia la austeridad\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Para comprender por qu\u00e9 esto es fundamental, Shahin Vall\u00e9e considera que hay que entender el significado de una f\u00f3rmula muy conocida entre los economistas: \u00abr &gt; g\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cuando el tipo de inter\u00e9s que se paga por la deuda (\u00abr\u00bb) supera el crecimiento nominal de la econom\u00eda (\u00abg\u00bb), la deuda aumenta m\u00e1s r\u00e1pidamente que la riqueza utilizada para amortizarla. La ratio deuda\/PIB aumenta entonces de forma autom\u00e1tica, incluso si no se produce un nuevo d\u00e9ficit primario.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De este modo, Francia puede entrar en un efecto \u00abbola de nieve reflexivo\u00bb: la subida de los tipos agrava la deuda, lo que preocupa a\u00fan m\u00e1s a los mercados, y los tipos suben a\u00fan m\u00e1s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/RaMkz\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>El margen de maniobra es escaso para un Gobierno sin mayor\u00eda, en plena campa\u00f1a presidencial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Su medida de seguridad: \u00abEl art\u00edculo 47, apartado 3, de la Constituci\u00f3n permite ejecutar el presupuesto mediante ordenanza si la Asamblea no se ha pronunciado en los plazos establecidos. Ning\u00fan Gobierno lo ha utilizado jam\u00e1s\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>El problema es que primero hay que esperar 70 d\u00edas de debates parlamentarios.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En resumen: \u00abNadie parece haberse dado cuenta de la zona de peligro en la que nos estamos adentrando\u00bb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00abNadie parece haberse dado cuenta de la zona de peligro en la que nos estamos adentrando\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":112584,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[1472],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[177],"class_list":["post-112592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","editorial_format-analisis","geo-europa"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":112584,"excerpt":"\u00abNadie parece haberse dado cuenta de la zona de peligro en la que nos estamos adentrando\u00bb","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with 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