{"id":101843,"date":"2026-06-09T19:45:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T17:45:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/?p=101843"},"modified":"2026-06-09T19:45:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T17:45:20","slug":"guerra-en-iran-deberia-provocar-mas-perdidas-economicas-europa-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2026\/06\/09\/guerra-en-iran-deberia-provocar-mas-perdidas-economicas-europa-china\/","title":{"rendered":"La guerra en Ir\u00e1n deber\u00eda causar m\u00e1s p\u00e9rdidas econ\u00f3micas a Europa y China que a Estados Unidos"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Seg\u00fan un informe publicado el lunes 8 de junio por el Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), la guerra contra Ir\u00e1n y <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/observatoire-de-la-bataille-dormuz\/\">el bloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz<\/a> podr\u00edan provocar una desaceleraci\u00f3n del crecimiento mundial y contribuir a un aumento de la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No obstante, la magnitud del impacto econ\u00f3mico se distribuir\u00e1 de forma desigual entre las grandes econom\u00edas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En un escenario de crisis temporal, caracterizado por unos precios elevados de la energ\u00eda durante un a\u00f1o, se prev\u00e9 que el PIB de Estados Unidos sea un 1,2% inferior en 2026 con respecto a las previsiones de 2023, y el de Europa Occidental, un 1,6% inferior&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-101843' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/es\/2026\/06\/09\/guerra-en-iran-deberia-provocar-mas-perdidas-economicas-europa-china\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-101843' title='Warwick J. McKibbin, Marcus Noland y Geoffrey Shuetrim, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.piie.com\/publications\/working-papers\/2026\/global-economic-implications-2026-middle-east-war&quot;&gt;Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war&lt;\/a&gt;, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), 8 de junio de 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Las econom\u00edas asi\u00e1ticas ser\u00edan, aparte de los pa\u00edses del Golfo, las m\u00e1s afectadas: China perder\u00eda un 1,8% del PIB este a\u00f1o, Jap\u00f3n un 1,7%, Malasia un 2% e India hasta un 3,1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En los pa\u00edses de Oriente Medio y el norte de \u00c1frica, el PIB ser\u00eda un 12,4% inferior al previsto para 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Ar2Et\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>El escenario de crisis prolongada, en el que los precios de la energ\u00eda (petr\u00f3leo crudo, productos petrol\u00edferos refinados y GNL) se mantendr\u00edan elevados hasta 2028, revela una distribuci\u00f3n similar del impacto econ\u00f3mico de la crisis provocada por la guerra contra Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Se prev\u00e9 que el PIB de Estados Unidos disminuya un 1,1% este a\u00f1o con respecto al escenario de referencia y un 0,6% en 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Es una cifra muy inferior a la del resto del mundo, cuyo PIB se reducir\u00eda un 2,6% este a\u00f1o y un 1,6% el a\u00f1o que viene.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/K01Uv\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Por lo tanto, Estados Unidos es el pa\u00eds cuya econom\u00eda est\u00e1 menos expuesta a la crisis energ\u00e9tica provocada por el cierre del estrecho de Ormuz, sobre todo debido a su importante producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo y gas, as\u00ed como a sus vastas reservas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aunque China cuenta con las mayores reservas de petr\u00f3leo del mundo, la desaceleraci\u00f3n del crecimiento mundial tendr\u00e1 un impacto negativo en la demanda de sus exportaciones.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En los pa\u00edses emergentes, es sobre todo el aumento del precio de los fertilizantes lo que deber\u00eda repercutir en la econom\u00eda, debido al importante peso que tiene la agricultura en la generaci\u00f3n de riqueza.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NFU7w\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Por su parte, los pa\u00edses europeos son vulnerables debido a la elevada proporci\u00f3n de importaciones en su consumo energ\u00e9tico: hasta un 92% en Italia en el caso del petr\u00f3leo, un 81% en Alemania y un 73% en Francia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Por su parte, Estados Unidos depende de las importaciones de petr\u00f3leo para cubrir menos de la mitad de su consumo (46,2%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En el caso de los productos petrol\u00edferos refinados, esta cifra es s\u00f3lo del 11,4%, y del 0,1% para el GNL, frente al 60,5% y el 80,4% en Francia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se espera que el PIB estadounidense sea este a\u00f1o un 1,2% inferior al de la hip\u00f3tesis de referencia debido a la guerra, frente al -1,6% de Europa y el -1,8% de China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":101826,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[1472],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[198],"class_list":["post-101843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","editorial_format-analisis","geo-mundo"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":101826,"excerpt":"Se espera que el PIB estadounidense sea este a\u00f1o un 1,2% inferior al de la hip\u00f3tesis de referencia debido a la guerra, frente al -1,6% de Europa y el -1,8% de China.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ 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